The outcome of the US presidential election in November 2024 remains uncertain. The two main candidates, incumbent President Joe Biden and his immediate predecessor and rival reincarnation Donald Trump, remain statistically evenly matched as measured by polls. This in itself, given the ongoing criminal and civil cases against Trump, his past and promise to reject unfavorable election results, and his encouragement to his supporters on January 6, 2021, as a “lighthouse” to the world. It is a challenge to America's self-projection. , for storming the U.S. Capitol, where his loss in the 2020 election was legally certified, and for his erratic actions motivated by personal gain while in office from 2017 to 2020.
Student protests and growing discontent over Gaza
Biden faces his own political challenges stemming from internal and external factors. He is losing support and enthusiasm from the African American community, which was one of the key elements of his 2020 victory. Republicans have made inroads with Hispanic and Jewish voters, bucking previous trends in which minorities generally supported Democrats. The recent wave of student protests on university campuses, and the ensuing donor-funded and politically-driven response by university authorities and police, may anger young voters.
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Biden's external challenges are playing a major role in this election. The student protests are galvanized by the perception that the United States is not doing enough to curb or end Israel's continued actions in Gaza, and even the U.S. government is It reiterates the need to comply with international humanitarian law and avoid civilian casualties. The US has reiterated its “ironclad” guarantee of Israel's security and has not attached any conditions to continued military supplies. We also fully support Israel's decision to act to prevent a repeat of the Hamas attack on October 7 last year, and deploy and fly two aircraft carrier battle groups to the Eastern Mediterranean to prevent regional escalation. Actively cooperated with Israel to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles. , in cooperation with Britain, carried out attacks on Houthi strongholds targeting ships in the Red Sea.
balance competing interests
Under these circumstances, Mr. Biden will have to deal with competing domestic and international interests and pressures.
The United States' Jewish community of more than 7 million people recognizes Israel and its A keen awareness of security and the memory of the Holocaust during World War II. Communities have a significant impact on the financing and outcomes of many elections. Traditionally, about 70-80% of Jewish votes have gone to Democrats.
Republicans continue to make concerted efforts to de-escalate the situation, claiming they are more strongly supporting Israel's security interests. As president, Trump signaled acceptance of Israel's claims by moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018 and closing the consulate, which had been doing business with Palestinians, particularly in East Jerusalem. Contrary to his international stance, in 2019 he unilaterally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which came under control from Syria in 1967. In April 2004, Republican President George Bush wrote to then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel, stating that “the United States is committed to Israel's security, including its secure and defensible borders, and to the “We reiterate our firm commitment to maintaining and strengthening Israel's self-defense capabilities against any possible combination of threats.” He also expressed support for Israel's position that Palestinian refugees would only be resettled in a future Palestinian state and that realities on the ground, including the presence of several large settlements in the West Bank, would be factored into the final agreement. expressed.
arab street rage
While keeping in mind the Jewish vote, Biden will also have to deal with many on the left of the Democratic Party critical of Israel's actions, as well as internal anxieties among Arab and Muslim Americans. A strong presence in key battleground states such as Michigan. Furthermore, in the face of growing anger and protests in Arab streets, the United States has urged Arab allies and partners such as Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to also be mindful of their regime and security interests. I need to reassure them that I am there. . Therefore, in addition to warning about some Israeli actions, the United States will call for increased relief supplies to Gaza and oppose any large-scale Israeli action in Rafah until the safety of civilians is ensured. publicly announced.
During his recent trip to the region (April 29-May 1), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken apparently visited sites in Jordan and Israel on the humanitarian aid route to Gaza. Given Iran's consolidated strengths stemming from its military capabilities and ties to non-state actors such as Yemen's Houthis, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, many Arab states are seeking closer ties with the United States. I would like to maintain it.
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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also raising internal and external power dynamics. Apart from reports and claims that Russia had access to a small amount of information during the 2016 Trump campaign, the latter wanted to show off that it was following a different policy than President Obama. Trump was often seen as not being sufficiently critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Indeed, CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act), passed in 2017, was also seen as a way to tie President Trump's hands.
Aid to Ukraine and China's complex power relations
In contrast to President Trump, the Biden administration is trying to portray itself as strengthening America's strength and security by refocusing on alliances and partnerships. He urged Europe and NATO to provide more than $100 billion in economic and security aid. The US Congress recently approved $90 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. However, some Republicans strongly opposed additional aid to Ukraine, forcing the Republican speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to rely on Democratic votes to pass the bill. There is currently an ongoing movement among Republican lawmakers to oust the chairman.
Regarding relations with China, a similar power relationship exists, although the coordination of the parties involved is different. There is broad consensus among Republicans and Democrats, as well as the strategic community, about the need to push back against China's increasingly assertive and unilateral actions in the East China Sea, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and Beijing's build-up of excess industrial capacity. We are doing so. Not only does it disadvantage others, but it also includes subsidies for a variety of industries, including electric vehicles. China is recognized as a major economic, technological, and military challenge to the United States and the only global actor with the intent and ability to “replace the United States in the international system.''
However, there is also opposition from the U.S. industrial and financial sectors, which are deeply involved in the Chinese economy. They focus on short-term balance sheets rather than long-term strategic issues. The Biden administration's rhetoric thus shifted from “decoupling” to “risk avoidance,” focusing on technologies related to national security with “small yards and high fences.” Again, some of America's allies are not fully aligned with American strategy. German Chancellor Scholz, who recently visited China with a large business delegation, was criticized for failing to raise issues such as overcapacity, subsidies and human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
During Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign, he famously said, “It's the economy, you idiot,” to draw attention to the often decisive factor in poll results. Similarly, when it comes to American foreign policy, one can say, “Domestic politics (also), stupid.''
(The author is a former Indian ambassador to the US, France and Israel)
Disclaimer: These are the author's personal opinions.
