Editor's note: W. James Antle III is editor-in-chief of the Washington Examiner and author of Devouring Freedom: Can Government Ever Be Stopped? The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinions on CNN.
CNN —
Former President Donald Trump and Judge Juan Machan are engaged in a high-stakes game of legal chicken in their ongoing hush money trial, with a new threat of jail time that could derail his presidential campaign. There is.
Provided by: W. James Antle III
W. James Antle III
The total $10,000 fine has not deterred President Trump from repeatedly violating the gag rule in this case, with the former president and potential Republican nominee being held in contempt of court for the 10th time on Monday. sentenced for the crime. President Trump is prohibited from personally attacking witnesses, prosecutors, jurors, court officials and their families. Prosecutors are not seeking prison time for Trump's violations.
However, the threat of prison time may not have the desired effect either, as President Trump may believe that such a penalty would be the best example of a politically biased legal system running amuck. “Frankly, our Constitution is far more important than prison,” President Trump said on the 12th day of his trial for falsifying corporate records in a hush money scheme to improve his chances of winning the 2016 election. ” he said.
Jailing Trump could give him further ammunition to rally his base against what he calls a witch hunt and describes as a form of election interference. It could also be a much-needed fundraising boon for President Trump to pay his legal bills and align himself with Democrats. (Mr. Biden's main campaign committee put in nearly twice as much money in April as Mr. Trump's main campaign fund.) Biden's campaign spent 7.1 million on bookings and mugshots alone in the Georgia election interference case. He claims to have collected dollars. The profits from this image can be even greater.
It also points out that the first realistic possibility that Trump is in solitary confinement will arise from a criminal case that many legal experts widely consider to be the weakest of the four against Trump. would mean.
Jane Rosenberg
In a courtroom sketch, Judge Juan Melchan ruled Monday that former President Donald Trump violated a gag order in his hush money trial by making comments about jury composition.
Machan appears to understand the risks as well as the weight of his decision over the possibility of a prison sentence. “Mr. Trump, it's important for you to understand, the last thing I want to do is put you in jail. You're a former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well,” the judge said. “I have never forgotten the magnitude of this decision, but at the end of the day, I have a job to do.”
However, previous adverse legal decisions against Mr. Trump, including the E. Jean Carroll civil suit for sexual abuse and defamation and the New York state civil fraud judgment, have made him less competitive as a general election candidate. There was nothing that would make it worse.
The sentencing of multiple indictments boosted Trump in the Republican primary. The start of the hush-money trial has not significantly hurt Trump in polls with President Joe Biden. According to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS in April, most people in the country are divided over whether Trump is being treated harshly or lightly compared to other defendants. But about three-quarters of Trump voters said they would continue to support him even if he was treated more harshly than other defendants. He was convicted of a crime. (Mr. Trump maintains his innocence and denies all wrongdoing in the four cases against him.)
In this particular case, Trump could be jailed for comments he made during his trial over the allegations, which some critics argue should only be prosecuted as a misdemeanor, while Trump's former lawyer Michael Whistleblowers like Mr. Cohen are nearly ubiquitous in news organizations. (Mr. Marchan warned that if Mr. Cohen continues to criticize Mr. Trump, the gag order that bars former presidents from commenting on things like witnesses and jurors may no longer apply to references to him.) One of Trump's gag rules violations was reposting a link to a New York newspaper. A column by George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley attacks Cohen's credibility based on past perjury.
Discussion of the crimes to which Cohen has pleaded guilty appears to be fair play as a public debate, not an attempt to intimidate or intimidate witnesses. Trump and his supporters could claim a double standard here.
All these developments are occurring against a broader backdrop of President Trump blaming his legal problems on his political opponents, namely Biden and his Democratic allies. President Trump's rhetoric may be exaggerated, but there is a risk, especially for Democrats who claim to be defending democracy, norms, and the rule of law through these prosecutions.
The plain fact is that he is the only politician of Trump's stature to have been impeached twice, indicted four times, and faced a civil fraud trial. Part of his political appeal appears to stem from voters believing that the powers that be will not allow them to elect him again. Putting him in jail before being convicted on these charges during a campaign where he is leading in many polls would strengthen all these arguments.
Trump also has clear risks. The unprecedented sight of a presidential candidate locked up in prison could make all these charges seem more real, and it remains to be seen how voters will react. In a presidential election that is shaping up to be a close one, even small changes can have important implications.
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Jurors are also unpredictable. There is no way to know in advance how they will react if President Trump is jailed for violating the gag rule. That could make him a more sympathetic defendant. Jurors may also be more inclined to convict if their conviction for guilt is strengthened by incarceration, or if the jury does not respond well to his defiance. In any case, domestic voters are not the only audience President Trump should be reaching.
Nevertheless, given the major developments in President Trump's past legal problems, it is easy to see how a short period of incarceration could be turned to his advantage. Voters may decide that jailing a former president is not the way they want presidential candidates to be treated in this country.
