UNITED NATIONS (AP) – The United Nations reported Thursday that the outlook for the global economy has improved since its January forecast, with improved prospects for the United States and several major emerging economies, including Brazil, India and Russia. pointed out.
The global economy is expected to grow 2.7% this year, according to the mid-2024 report, revised upward from the 2.4% forecast in the January report, and 2.8% in 2025. The growth rate of 2.7% will be equivalent to the growth rate in 2023. However, it is still lower than the 3% growth rate before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
“Our outlook is one of cautious optimism, but there are important caveats,” Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the United Nations' economic analysis and policy department, told a press conference announcing the report.
The report cited persistently high interest rates, debt servicing challenges, continued geopolitical tensions and climate risks, particularly for the world's poorest countries and small island states.
Mukherjee said that while inflation has fallen from its peak in 2023, it remains a “symptom of underlying fragility” in the global economy and “a cause for concern in its own right.” Ta.
“We have seen that inflation rates remain high in some countries,” he said. “Energy and food prices have been creeping up globally in recent months, but I think it's a bit more insidious that even inflation continues to exceed central banks' 2% target in many developed countries. ”
The UN forecast for 2024 is lower than both the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
In mid-April, the IMF predicted that the global economy would continue to grow at 3.2% from 2024 to 2025, at the same pace as in 2023. The OECD also predicted in early May that the growth rate would be 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.
The latest U.N. estimates predict that U.S. growth will be 2.3% in 2024, up from 1.4% expected at the beginning of the year, while China's growth will rise slightly to 4.8% from 4.7% in January. 1 year.
Despite climate risks, a report from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts that a recovery in tourism will improve economic growth rates in mainly developing small island states from 2.4% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024. are doing.
On the downside, the report forecasts Africa's economic growth rate to be 3.3%, revised down from the 3.5% forecast for early 2024. The report points to a weak outlook for seven African countries, including Africa's largest economies, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa. Countries that are “in debt crisis” and 13 other countries that are “at high risk of debt crisis.”
Mr Mukherjee said the downward revision to Africa's outlook was “particularly concerning as Africa has approximately 430 million people living in extreme poverty and accounts for nearly 40% of the world's undernourished people.” “Two-thirds of the world's high-inflation countries are on the list,” he said. Our updates are also in Africa. ”
He said the situation was “less dire” for developing countries, but the continued decline and sharp decline in investment growth was a key concern.
Edith M. Lederer, Associated Press
