Four of the seven phases of India's general elections have been completed, with 380 seats and hundreds of candidates elected. Voters finalized the mandate of about 70% of all Lok Sabha seats. Both social media and traditional media are abuzz with polls and analysis, but a common observation is that a race that initially seemed settled turned out to be closer than expected, and that national factors were It was found that regional factors were given priority. problem.
A few analysts argue that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may not return to power. Some predict that while the party may not be able to reach 272 seats on its own, it may manage to cross the halfway mark if it works with allies. A slight drop in voter turnout has added to the anxiety, leaving supporters of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and India bloc perplexed.
Pollsters enjoy the spotlight
The people conducting the exit polls are being asked questions on social media and in TV interviews, making their lives very similar to those in the field. However, most polling organizations have refrained from releasing the numbers, considering it unethical to talk about such details when the election is still underway. In fact, many of them give different answers in each interview, leading to confusion. In the midst of a season of speculation and war of words, both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress are trying to sway public sentiment in their favour. Home Minister Amit Shah has already claimed that the BJP has won 270 seats by the fourth phase.
Elections are largely influenced by the “mahor”, or the mood of the people. India has a large population of late-deciders (25-30%, according to various surveys), and it is these voters who are most influenced by opinion poll rhetoric.
Why ground reports are unreliable
Those who believe the BJP could lose this election often cite the example of 2004, when the national favorite Atal Bihari Vajpayee lost his mandate. At the time, almost all exit polls failed to gauge the public's mood. If exit polls conducted using scientific methods can be wrong, ground reports based on unscientific sampling methods and collected through ground feedback can also be misleading. That's because such local reporting typically depicts elections as “hardly contested,” with supporters of each side tending to claim victory as their own. This was also seen in the 2023 Madhya Pradesh elections, which ended up being a largely one-sided battle.
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Let's look at some data. In the 1999 general elections, the BJP won him 182 seats with 24% vote share and the Congress won 114 seats with 28% vote share. Although the vote share difference between the two parties was only 4 percentage points (pp), the BJP still managed to form the government with the support of its NDA allies.
In the next general election in 2004, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 138 seats (-44) with a vote share of 22% (-2 points) and the Congress won 145 seats (+31) with a vote share of 27% (-1 point). The Congress formed the government with its ally the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the BJP was handed a shocking defeat despite its 'Shining India' campaign.
About margin of victory
In 1999, the average lead in seats won by the BJP was about 65,000 votes and 9 percentage points. A 10-point victory margin is usually considered a close game, as just a 5-point difference is enough for him to overturn. Therefore, the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory in 1999 was not that great, which is part of the reason why it lost to the Congress in the next general election.
In 2019, the average vote difference for the seats won by the BJP was approximately 2.32 million votes, or a vote share of 20 points. He would need a swing of at least 10 points to tilt the game, so a 20 point margin of victory would be considered a one-sided contest. Can this huge gap be reversed in 2024?
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In the 1984 elections, the Congress won 414 seats with an average vote share of 22 points, but lost in the subsequent 1989 elections. Remarkably, what helped the party in 1984 was the deep sympathy that arose after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. It waned by the next election, and the Bofors scandal and corruption allegations against the Gandhi family took a heavy toll.
So the question arises: Is India's political climate today similar to 1984, 2004, or even 2019? Well, the answer depends on which side of the fence you are on.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his previous avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the author's personal opinions.
