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Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a clear signal to the West that China firmly supports Russia. President Putin visited Beijing on May 16 for the first time since his inauguration to meet with President Xi Jinping. The trip followed a cabinet reshuffle in Russia the previous week, the most important move being the appointment of Russian economist Andrei Belousov to replace Sergei Shoigu. Minister of Defense.
Belosov's appointment suggests that President Putin now believes that the outcome of the war against Ukraine will depend on which side can mobilize the most resources in a long-term economic struggle. President Putin's visit to Beijing suggests that he is preparing external elements with economic support from China.
President Putin understandably believes that Russia's war with Ukraine will be determined by who can win financially. At face value, one might think that Russia has little chance of winning, given that Russia's GDP is $1.8 trillion, compared to more than $40 trillion for Western countries. If we add in China, a powerful economic power with a value of $17 trillion, the economic balance looks a little different.
Unfortunately, the West does not seem to understand that the focus of the war is on the economy and resources. Data shows that Ukraine is short on funds and resources. Western aid to Ukraine is about $100 billion a year, enough for Kiev to hold the line, but not enough to push back Russia (as evidenced by the actions of the past few weeks in the Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts of Ukraine).
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And with U.S. aid delayed by Congress, Western aid to Ukraine has waxed and waned. It peaked at about $8.5 billion in the first half of 2023, coinciding with the much-publicized Ukraine counterattack, but then continued at just $37 billion per month between October 2023 and February 2024. It went down to billions of dollars. This decline in Western funding occurred in parallel with the Ukrainian counterattack. They were at a disadvantage defensively in the match against Russia. No surprises there.
Western funding for Ukraine is inadequate, poorly coordinated, and lacks long-term planning and strategy. It's ad hoc IV nutrition. There is no comprehensive long-term financing strategy in place for Ukraine, especially one that envisions a scenario in which Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election. President Putin, by contrast, has sought to provide Russia with a vision for long-term war resources. Sadly, the West doesn't really understand what's at stake here.
Fortunately, China's support for Russia is far from heartfelt. Russia is dependent on Iran and North Korea, as China provides no direct military support and only limited equipment and ammunition. Why isn't China fully engaged?
Essentially, China is not keen on undermining its excellent global relationship with the United States, nor is it keen on escalating a trade war, and is mindful of avoiding tough Western sanctions. So while the Russian government may view China as a major international trading partner, that sentiment is not really reciprocated by the Chinese government. Russia is certainly useful to China, but for now it is a minor player.
On May 16, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend an official welcome ceremony in front of the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, on the first day of President Putin's state visit to China. . (Sergey Bobilev/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Rather, China is trying to draw a line between Russia and the United States. Whenever possible, the Chinese government takes advantage of Russia's weakness and increased dependence to buy discounted Russian goods diverted from traditional markets for Russia in Europe and increase sales of non-military goods. ing. Exports to Russia are carried out in the highest dollar amount, i.e. Renminbi. As a result, bilateral trade between China and Russia increased by about a quarter to a record $240 billion in 2023, tipping the balance in favor of China.
Western countries are nervous about the growth of this trade, particularly China's increasing exports of dual-use technology to Russia. However, China is careful not to further deteriorate relations with its major Western trading partners, and the threat of secondary sanctions against Chinese companies is now showing signs of moderating this trade, with In April, China's exports to Russia decreased compared to the previous year.
President Xi's visit to Europe last week confirmed to Europe that Russia's war against Ukraine is a direct threat to European security. He also asserted that if China wants to win over European allies in the China-US trade war, it needs to carefully manage its relationship with Russia to avoid pushing Europe toward the United States.
It is also important to recognize that there are stress points in China-Russia relations. First, tensions and border disputes remain in eastern Russia. This week's Xi-Putin meeting appeared to acknowledge the situation with a new agreement, but tensions remain serious. Many Russians see China as Russia's greatest long-term security threat.
Second, China's decision not to provide arms to Russia has forced Moscow to turn its attention to North Korea, while China has become increasingly nervous and irritated by the deepening ties in its backyard. China is concerned about deepening cooperation between Russia and North Korea to further strengthen North Korea's nuclear and ballistic weapons programs in return for North Korea supplying military supplies to Russia. A more militarily powerful North Korea that is less dependent on China is not in Beijing's interest.
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Third, through its invasion of Ukraine, Russia signaled that it is a disruptor of the world. It is literally an out-of-control country that wants to change the status quo of the world and is willing to take rash actions at the risk of disrupting global markets. In contrast, China has long valued the rules-based international order that brought globalization, free markets, and trade, and saw it as a necessary accent to its global economic hegemony over the United States.
It is also noteworthy that China appears to have certain guardrails in place for Russian actions in Ukraine, making it clear that it does not support the use of nuclear weapons, for example, as outlined in China's 12-point peace plan for a Russian war against Ukraine. However, China, which would have been initially surprised by the outbreak of all-out war, seems comfortable with a prolonged conflict as long as Russia maintains the guardrails.
A prolonged war would ultimately weaken Russia and make it more dependent on China, allowing China to buy cheaper goods and charge higher dollars for major exports to Russia. Russia's struggles in Ukraine highlight that it may not have been clear in 2022 whether Russia was a junior partner in Sino-Russian relations (at least to President Putin).
China supports a weakened Russia, but not a defeated one. So Xi allowed Putin the visit he wanted, and both men signaled different points to the elephant in the room: Washington. Putin suggested that Russia was preparing for a long economic struggle for Ukraine. Xi suggested that if the U.S. wants to avoid a bad outcome in Ukraine, China needs to act aggressively and limit its support for Russia, in return for concessions on trade and other issues.
Editor's note: The opinions expressed in the editorial section are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Kyiv Independent.
timothy ash
Associate Fellow at Chatham House
Timothy Ash is an Associate Research Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House. Ash is also a Senior Emerging Markets (EM) Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management.read more
