This commentary analyzes the answers obtained from the 2024 Royal Institute Barometer of Elcano (BRIE) in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although many other subjects were covered in the survey, we will focus here only on the findings related to this conflict.
The survey results show that while Spanish public opinion (60%) believes that a solution to the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict requires the existence of two separate states, an overwhelming majority (78%) supports the swift recognition of a Palestinian state.
Infographic of Spanish public opinion on recognition of the Palestinian state
analysis
Spanish public opinion has a nuanced view of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and is able to distinguish between this very protracted conflict and the current situation in Gaza. Almost half of the population, 48%, believe both sides are equally responsible for the continuation of the conflict, but only 34% hold the same view regarding the current situation in Gaza. In the latter case, the blame falls much more clearly on Israel. 50% believe that Israel is responsible for what is currently happening in Gaza.
Regarding the overall conflict, which began more than 70 years ago, Spaniards were equally likely to blame both sides in 2016 (63%), with a third accepting that Israel is primarily responsible. In the wake of the current war, the number of people blaming Israel for perpetuating the historical conflict has increased significantly, but it still outnumbers those who hold it equally responsible.
In any case, only a minority, then and now, believes that Palestine (the Palestinian people) is primarily responsible for the persistence of the conflict. A small minority (16%) also believe that the Palestinians are primarily responsible for the current situation in Gaza.
There is a very clear relationship between education level, ideology and attribution of responsibility in both questions, whether referring to historical conflicts or the current situation. In both cases, blame towards Israel increases with educational level and with a leftward shift along the ideological spectrum. Only among those positioned to the right (positions 10, 9, 8 and 7 on a scale from 0 to 10) is there a higher proportion of individuals (38%) who primarily blame the Palestinians for the current situation in Gaza. Among those in the ideological center (positions 4, 5 and 6), who make up the largest group in the sample, opinions are evenly divided between those who blame Israel for what is happening in Gaza and those who blame both sides equally.
In addition to the increased condemnation of Israel, another notable change in Spanish public opinion was a sharp decline in support for the “single state for Jews and Palestinians” solution (BRIE 2021), Support for the two-state solution has increased accordingly. Only a small minority (3%) support Israel's annexation of occupied territories.
Men, older people, the highly educated and people on the left are the most supportive of a two-state solution.
As far as the current situation in Gaza is concerned, the majority of those interviewed (78%) support immediate recognition of a Palestinian state by European countries. Although this position is even stronger among those interviewed on the left and at higher education levels, this is the majority view across all ideological groups and at all educational levels.
technical details
Universe: Individuals aged 18-80 living in 17 autonomous communities and cities in Spain. Sampling: Stratified by autonomous community and municipality size, with educational, gender, and age assignments proportional to population distribution. Sample size: 1,000 interviews. Interview type: Telephone interview using both landline and mobile phones. Sampling error: 95.5% confidence level for global data, +/-3.2% for worst case hypothesis. Fieldwork and data editing: Random strategies. Fieldwork dates: March 13 to April 9, 2024.
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