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Iran's recent missile attacks on Israel serve as a stark reminder of the petro-autocratic powers' growing boldness in ignoring international norms and undermining global peace. Emboldened by Russia's relentless and indiscriminate attacks on Ukraine, targeting everything from hospitals and kindergartens to power plants with Iranian-made missiles and drones, Iran highlights the dangerous consequences of unchecked aggression by these regimes.
Despite facing (often limited) Western sanctions, these regimes have operated with impunity, fueled by continued revenues from oil exports, which have generated more than 670 billion euros ($726 billion) for the Kremlin since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
Russia, in particular, has taken inspiration from Iran's strategy, observing how Iran circumvents Western oil embargoes by creating a shadow fleet of tankers. Iranian vessels operate outside standard regulations and surveillance systems, allowing the Iranian regime to sell crude oil at discounted prices with the support of co-conspirators such as China. Russia has also adopted shadow fleet tactics from sanctions-evading Venezuela, North Korea, and Oman.
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Although Russia does not face the same embargo as Iran, it is subject to G7 and European Union oil price caps introduced in 2022, meaning Russian oil exports can legally sell for more than $60 a barrel. prevent being The measures are aimed at curbing Russia's oil revenues and deterring further aggression against Ukraine. In response, Russia has taken the concept of a shadow fleet to new heights, building an unprecedented network of hundreds of oil tankers dedicated to circumventing price caps and bolstering the Kremlin's war chest.
The size of Russia's shadow fleet is staggering, with an estimated 300 to 1,400 tankers registered under various national flags engaged in oil exports from 2022 onwards. This market ambiguity poses significant risks to maritime safety and the environment.
The past two years have seen numerous close calls and minor incidents in Asia and Europe, including a major breakdown in Danish waters in March 2024. Many shadow tanker infrastructures, around 80% of which are over 15 years old, are aging. Breakdowns, collisions and spills are possible, further endangering coastal communities and ecosystems. The escalating situation poses enormous risks to law-abiding ships, the environment and the countries where the incidents occur.
Experts point to problems with vessel-to-ship transshipment operations by Russia's main regional partners, as seen in South Korea's Yeosu. More problematic transshipments have also been discovered in Oman, Yemen, Spain and other countries. In early 2024, about 115,000 barrels per day were classified as “other unknown” volumes, transported in tankers with no clear destination. Much of this cargo is transported from ports in western Russia to the Suez Canal, with some arriving in Turkey. Other cargo is often transshipped near Greece.
Elizabeth Blow of the Atlantic Council aptly describes Russia's use of the Shadow Fleet as a calculated strategy to export corruption and undermine international rules. The tactic is part of a broader pattern of Russian aggression that includes military provocations against NATO forces and interference with maritime trade in the Black Sea.
A tugboat escorts the STI Commandante tanker after delivering Russian diesel to the fuel terminal in Purfleet, England, on April 5, 2022. (Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The fact that Russia has enjoyed impunity in these attempts sets a dangerous precedent for other rogue states, such as Iran, who are using similar tactics to project power and destabilize strategically important regions, allowing Iran's navy and proxies such as the Houthis to engage in acts of piracy and threaten global shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal.
After all, why would Russia and Iran be emboldened to export terror, corruption, and mayhem? NATO members such as Denmark, Norway, and the UK have witnessed a massive increase in the Russian shadow fleet near their coastlines, but have done nothing to stop it, despite the enormous risks, so why would less powerful coastal states take action?
We must pressure governments to take decisive steps to counter this threat, including increasing economic and diplomatic pressure on flag states.
It is appalling to read that Denmark, Norway and Sweden are not taking any action for fear of Russian retaliation. Despite more than two years of Russia's all-out war and the presence of Russia's shadow tanker fleet since late 2022, the British and Scandinavian governments remain silent and powerless regarding actual countermeasures against the fleet.
Civil society groups have recently stepped in, petitioning the UK government and staging high seas protests in Sweden. It was only after these actions that Swedish authorities began to signal public concern, without any concrete commitments. They hinted at possible action in the next sanctions package and proposed discussions within EU institutions. However, these statements lack binding commitments and will be the first time the EU has addressed this sanctions loophole since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Addressing the threat posed by Russia's shadow fleet requires a multifaceted approach. First, it is critical to raise awareness of the significant risks associated with these covert operations. Because these covert operations extend beyond the war in Ukraine to include environmental destruction and damage to coastal communities around the world.
Cooperation among Western countries to share information on tanker movements and ownership structures is essential. G7 and EU countries should step up pressure on flag states to hold vessels flying their flag accountable and impose diplomatic and economic sanctions on vessels that do not comply. They should prevent the proliferation of shadow tankers, particularly by restricting sales of tankers by EU and G7 bodies to operators that do not comply with sanctions and price cap policies, as well as to Russia or undisclosed buyers.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to revive the Soviet Union, but in this game you can play with two players. To complete the Kremlin's grotesque historical reenactment, the Western powers should launch a new economic cold war against it. In addition to the war of aggression waged against civilians and cities,
It is important to implement sanctions that target the entire shadow fleet network, not just crude oil. This comprehensive approach would include extending sanctions from individual vessels to the entire network, while strengthening price cap enforcement mechanisms. In addition, sanctions should be imposed on all entities that facilitate the transportation of crude oil by the shadow fleet, with a particular focus on mother tankers that employ flagrant and often illegal flag-switching tactics.
Despite the political challenges, Western allies must recognize that the potential costs of Russia’s petrodollar-funded military dominance in Ukraine far outweigh the risks of occasional small fluctuations in global oil prices, which will become less dramatic as clean energy becomes cheaper and more dominant.
Measures such as a total embargo on Russian energy exports and graduated secondary sanctions on non-compliant countries are necessary to halt Russian oil exports globally. Only such measures will curb the flow of funds to Russia's military and pave the way for peace in Ukraine.
Editor's note: Opinions expressed in the editorial section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kyiv Independent.
