Is a four-day work week inevitable?
The answer is probably “maybe.” Is this a risk-averse strategy? But one thing is for sure: if it were to happen, it probably wouldn't be the way Bernie Sanders would want it to be.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has introduced a bill that would mandate a four-day, 32-hour work week as a new standard for overtime pay.
Did you hear me? He's not talking about four 10-hour days, as some professions do, but about 8 hours being cut from everyone's work schedule.
And, using the magic only liberal lawmakers have, they will do all of this and demand that employers not cut anyone's pay.
But spoiler alert: Companies can't do this profitably unless workers are as productive working a four-day week as they are working a five-day week. And they might. But if that's the case, the four-day week would be best developed from the bottom up, rather than as a top-down mandate from Washington. That process may already be underway.
Like the stock market, the productivity of American workers has risen steadily for many years, but it has slowed recently.
Artificial intelligence has the potential to change all that. Writing for the Brookings Institution earlier this month, Martin Neal Bailey and Aidan Kane cited evidence that generative AI “can improve the productivity of lower-skilled employees in jobs and organizations. It's also helping scientists and doctors.”
“If AI can help accelerate scientific progress, this could lead to increased productivity in addition to the direct uses of AI in enterprises,” the researchers wrote.
If that sounds a bit too bland or sterile, you might prefer the bubbly mood of Bill Gates, who said last fall that he envisions a three-day workweek instead of a four-day one, in a world where “machines can make all our food and stuff and we don't have to work so hard.”
This is good news, unless of course you enjoy cooking or cook for a living.
Take this idea to Google and you'll find a ton of fantastic news about the great things about a four-day work week, from the environmental impact (shorter commutes!) to the positive impact on workers' mental health (less burnout!).
But as the Albuquerque Journal pointed out earlier this year, there is little reliable research on what happens when work hours are reduced, and what little research there is is inconclusive.
The paper quoted Subramanian Iyer, a professor of economics at the Anderson School of Management, as criticizing “anecdotal case studies conducted over a short period of time, one company here, one company there, and the evidence is based primarily on surveys – surveys where people give their opinions.”
Meanwhile, a June 2022 Gallup poll found that people who work four days a week experience higher rates of burnout than those who work five days a week. People who work fewer hours a week were less “disengaged” with their work, but they weren't any happier.
But that doesn't mean you don't want to give it a try, right? A survey conducted by resumebuilder.com last month found that 80% of full-time workers would prefer a four-day workweek. Nearly all of them said they could get their work done in 32 hours (of course they could). And a shocking 21% said they'd be willing to take a pay cut to make it happen.
Most of you would not accept a pay cut, but would be willing to promise that a three-day weekend would still keep you productive. However, many companies would have to hire more people to fill shifts, making the labor market even tighter. It is unlikely that Wall Street will cut its trading day to four days.
But make no mistake: if this labor market revolution does occur, it won't be because of Sanders or any other lawmaker, but because of market forces. With unemployment at 3.9%, companies have no choice but to attract workers with benefits. CNN reported last month that 30% of large U.S. companies are considering offering a four-day or four-and-a-half-day workweek to retain employees.
“We're all working to figure out what works best, and we'll continue to experiment and pivot,” the news outlet quoted KPMG US Chairman and CEO Paul Knopf as saying.
That's the way business is done, but take my advice and don't book your three-day weekend resort getaway just yet.
