With 80% of the seats in India's Lok Sabha having been voted for, two phases remain to conclude this year's general elections. Social media is abuzz with allegations and counter-allegations. While the opposition parties say what appeared to be a drawn-out contest is turning into a close one, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claims to achieve 'Mission 370'. To put the numbers in perspective, by the fifth phase in 2019, the BJP had won 238 seats. The remaining phases are therefore crucial.
In the sixth phase of elections, 58 seats will go to polls in eight states. These include eight in Bihar and West Bengal, seven in Delhi, 10 in Haryana, four in Jharkhand, six in Odisha, 14 in Uttar Pradesh and one in Jammu and Kashmir. Thus, in this phase, the constituencies going to polls are mainly spread across the Hindi heartland states and eastern India. Anantnag (Mehbooba Mufti), Rohtak (Deepender Singh Hooda), New Delhi (Bansri Swaraj), Kurukshetra (Naveen Jindal), Puri (Sambit Patra), Sambalpur (Dharmendra Pradhan), Sultanpur (Maneka Gandhi), Gurgaon (Raj Babbar), Azamgarh (Nirahua) and North East Delhi (Manoj Tiwari) are set to witness some high-profile contests.
2019 Performance
From the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP is contesting 51 seats, the Janata Dal (United) is contesting 4 seats and the All Jharkhand Students' Union is contesting 1 seat. From the opposition camp (which includes parties not affiliated to the Indian Union), the Indian National Congress is contesting 25 seats, the Samajwadi Party (SP) 12 seats, the Ahmed Amiya Party (AAP) 5 seats, the RJD 4 seats, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) 9 seats, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 6 seats and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are contesting 54 seats.
In 2019, the BJP won 40 of the 53 seats it contested. Meanwhile, the Congress Party failed to even break its record with 44 seats contested. Overall, parties allied with the BJP won 45 seats, members of the current Indian Union won five and non-aligned parties won eight. In contrast, in 2009, the Congress Party won 22 of the 58 seats while the BJP managed to win only seven. The average victory margin for the NDA was 21% and for members of the Indian Union 12%. The BJP won three of the four seats it contested on average from this stage onwards. In 47 seats, the party recorded a vote share of over 40%. Meanwhile, the Congress Party won a similar figure in just one seat but still lost.
In 2019, the BJP's overall winning margin was 69% compared to 12% for the Indian National Congress. In 29 seats, the BJP's average winning margin was more than 10% while in 11 seats it was less. The average voter turnout in seats at this stage was around 64% in both 2014 and 2019.
While turnout was initially lower in this year's election, it has improved compared to 2019 in the past two elections. In 2019, turnout increased in 27 seats compared to 2014. Of those, incumbent parties were defeated. Of the 31 seats where turnout decreased, five saw the defeat of 2014 winners.
Compensating for saturation
This time around, the BJP will need to maintain its 2019 performance and also pick up seats in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha to make up for losses in states where it had the most support. Haryana, a Jat stronghold, also poses a worry for the BJP.
In Bihar, the NDA had won all eight seats in 2019 (BJP four, JD-U three and LJP one) with a huge average margin of 26%. This time, the RJD is banking on the unemployment issue and Tejashwi Yadav's popularity among the youth to give a tough fight to BJP allies JD(U) and LJP. Moreover, vote transfer between the two is also likely to take a hit this time as hostility has developed between LJP's Chirag Paswan and JD(U) supremo and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar over the latter's allegation that the LJP had hurt the party's prospects in 28 seats during the 2020 state assembly elections.
In Haryana, the BJP faces the wrath of the Jats, who make up 27% of the population. People's resentment has been building since the farmers' uprising, the introduction of Agnipat and the wrestlers' protests. The Indian National Congress is trying to revive the traditional Jat, Dalit and Muslim votes in the state. These three communities constitute almost half of the state's population. The BJP, on the other hand, is hoping that the Jat votes will be split among the Indian National Congress, Indian National Congress (INLD) and the Janayak Janata Party (JJP), which will help limit its damage in the state to some extent.
UP Contest
In the eastern state of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won 12 of the 14 seats up for election in 2019. Seven of these 12 seats were won by less than 10% of the votes, making them close contests. In fact, Machikurisahar won by just 181 votes. The BSP and SP won one seat each.
The eastern state of Uttar Pradesh has a large Dalit population and the BSP's performance here could determine the outcome of the election to a large extent. The SP has managed to woo the support of non-Yadavs, OBCs and Jatavs by fine-tuning its strategy. Smaller parties like Suheldev Sri Samaj Party (SBSP), NISHAD and Apna Dal also have a role to play in the region as they have a certain support base.
In Delhi, the AAP is hoping to thwart a BJP trifecta, emboldened by the prospect of a wave of sympathy for its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, benefiting the party. It has allied with the Indian National Congress in the hope of smoothing vote shifts among the poor, Dalits and Muslims.
Delhi is typically a divided state, meaning that people there tend to vote for the BJP in Lok Sabha elections and the AAP in state assembly elections. But there is a floating (or “non-aligned”) voter base of around 36 percent in Delhi, who voted for the BJP (18 percent) and the Indian National Congress (18 percent) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and for the AAP (36 percent) in the 2020 state assembly elections. It is these non-aligned votes that Kejriwal's party is hoping to win over.
An interesting battle in Bengal
Meanwhile, West Bengal is going to polls in eight seats across five districts in the southwest of the state, popularly known as Jangal Mahal. The district includes the coastal Purba Medinipur district, where BJP's Suvendu Adhikari has a strong influence. Interestingly, in 2019, his relatives won the Kanthi and Tamluk seats in the district on Trinamool Party ticket. The area has seen clashes between TMC and BJP supporters in recent days.
In 2019, the region was a BJP stronghold with the party winning five of the eight seats here. A total of five seats were closely contested (with a margin of less than 10% vote share), of which three were won by the BJP and two by the Indian National Congress. Adding in the two seats held by the Adhikaris, the BJP won seven of the eight seats in total. The party would like to repeat this performance. Meanwhile, the TMC is trying to shave off its vote share and is to some extent motivated by its desire to take revenge on Suvendu, who had defeated Mamata Banerjee in the recent state assembly elections.
Overall, the Indian National Congress will need to flex its muscles at this stage as it could not even open a seat in 2019. For the Bharatiya Janata Party, retaining and winning seats will be a major challenge.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
