There are less than three months until the season opener against Georgia Tech and the defending ACC champion Florida State Seminoles, which is just the first of many tough matchups on the schedule for the Yellow Jackets in 2024. They will face one of the toughest schedules in the country next season.
247Sports analyst Brad Crawford rated the Yellow Jackets' 2024 schedule as the sixth-toughest in the country.
“As one of two ACC teams ranked in our toughest schedule rankings, Georgia Tech has a tough road ahead of it, especially with the Yellow Jackets finishing their season against Miami, NC State and Georgia in November. Coach Brent Key will need to get this team ready every week or it will be difficult to achieve bowl eligibility.”
Seven of Georgia Tech's opponents appeared in 247Sports' post-spring Top 25. Eleven of Georgia Tech's 12 opponents played in a bowl game last season.
When ESPN's Bill Connelly's latest SP+ rankings were released this week, Georgia Tech was ranked 63rd with a projected 35th offense, 99th defense and 68th special teams unit. How do the Yellow Jackets compare to the rest of their schedule and the ACC? Who is projected to have the best offense they will face? Who is projected to have the best defense they will face in 2024?
Let's look at the SP+ numbers: First, let's remember what SP+ is.
In his own words, Connelly sums up the rankings:
“I base my SP+ forecasts on three main factors, weighted according to forecast accuracy.
1. Return Production. Return production numbers are based on rosters that have been updated as much as possible to account for transfers and turnovers. The combination of last year's SP+ rating and an adjustment based on return production makes up roughly half of the projection formula.
2. Recent Acquisitions. This information informs me about the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars). This is determined by descending player acquisition rankings from the past few years (i.e. the most recent classes are weighted most heavily). Starting this season, I also incorporate transfers (both quality and quantity) in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy player acquisition shift, I have a bit more data on how to handle it. This information makes up about a third of the prediction formula.
3. Recent History. Using a little information from past seasons (2-4 years ago) can provide a good gauge of the overall health of a program. It stands to reason that a team that did well one year will be less likely to repeat that effort than a team that did well for many years (and vice versa). It's a small piece of the puzzle (only 15% or so), but predictions will be better with it than without it.
A note about SP+: It is a measure of college football efficiency that takes into account tempo and opponent. It is a measure that projects the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a resume ranking. Similarly, these projections are not intended to speculate on what the AP Top 25 will be at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather thus far.”
Here are Georgia Tech's 2024 opponents' SP+ rankings:
1. Georgia (No. 1 in the nation)
2. Notre Dame (No. 10)
3. Florida State University (#12)
4. Miami (No. 19)
5. Louisville (28th)
6. North Carolina State University (#29)
7. Virginia Tech (#32)
8. Duke (47th)
9. North Carolina (50th)
10. Syracuse (64)
11. Georgia State University (#107)
This is a tough schedule. Seven of Georgia Tech's 12 opponents are ranked inside the top 32 of the SP+ preseason rankings. Another tough aspect of the schedule is that only two of the games against the top seven teams are at home (Miami and NC State). Georgia Tech doesn't have those opportunities in terms of playing teams that are considered to be at the bottom of the conference, such as Boston College, Virginia, or Stanford.
Georgia Tech will also be facing teams expected to have the best offense in the country. Heading into the season, here are the Offensive SP+ rankings of Georgia Tech's opponents:
1. Georgia (No. 2 offensive power in the nation)
2. Notre Dame (No. 10)
3. Florida State University (#16)
4. Miami (No. 18)
5. North Carolina (36th)
6. Virginia Tech (42nd)
7. North Carolina State University (#56)
8. Louisville (No. 57)
9. Duke (No. 70)
10. Syracuse (73rd)
11. Georgia State University (#88)
Georgia Tech will face four of the top 18 offensively powerful teams in the country, according to SP+, and I also think Louisville, Virginia Tech and North Carolina State could all be ranked much higher than expected by the end of the season.
Here are the top defenses Georgia Tech will face this season:
1. Georgia (5th in the nation)
2. Notre Dame (No. 9)
3. Florida State University (#10)
4. Louisville (No. 23)
5. North Carolina State University (#25)
6. Virginia Tech (33rd)
7. Duke (No.34
8. Miami (No. 36)
9. Syracuse (54)
10. North Carolina (65)
11. Georgia State University (#111)
Georgia Tech will face three of the top 10 SP+ projected defenses and five of the top 25. The Yellow Jackets should boast one of the best offenses in the country, but they'll struggle on an almost weekly basis.
Looking at the SP+ numbers, it's easy to see how tough Georgia Tech's schedule will be this season. They'll be playing some of the most complete and talented teams in the country. It will be interesting to track these numbers throughout the season and track how strong these opponents on their schedule actually are. For now, it's a daunting schedule for the Yellow Jackets.
