Armenia is still reeling from the effects of the protests that swept through Yerevan on May 9. On April 19, 2024, the Armenian-Azerbaijani Border Demarcation Committee signed a protocol on the demarcation of Armenia's Tavush region and the border demarcation process. The agreement gave Azerbaijan control over parts of the territory along the border that was formally part of Soviet Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The “Tavush for the Homeland” movement began with the blockade of the Armenian-Georgian highway near the village of Kirants in the Tavush region, one of the villages affected by the process. The movement then turned into a march to Yerevan. Led by Tavush Archbishop Bagrat, protesters arrived in Yerevan on May 9, 2024, and at a rally called for the resignation of Prime Minister Pashinyan. This rally was followed by several other rallies in Yerevan over the past two weeks, sometimes involving clashes with the police.
This is not the first wave of protests calling for Prime Minister Pashinyan's resignation after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Protests calling for the prime minister's resignation broke out in late 2020 and early 2021. After months of tension, the prime minister resigned and surprise parliamentary elections were held in June 2021, ending with the ruling party's victory. The next wave of protests began in April 2022 in response to the prime minister's suggestion to lower the bar on Nagorno-Karabakh's status during negotiations. The movement died down after two months of rallies in Yerevan.
In both cases, the driving force behind the protests was the parties and politicians who were in power in Armenia before the Velvet Revolution, which was one of the reasons for their failure: parts of Armenian society continued to see them negatively. Another common element in the last two protests was the narrative about the “Russian hand,” that is, that Russia was supporting or organizing the protests in order to remove Armenia's democratic government. External interference is a common way of explaining complex events in the former Soviet bloc, namely, that Russia or the West is behind the changes brought about by competition and conflict between Russia and the West.
The ongoing protests in Armenia raise two questions: why are people protesting, and why are the protests being led not by politicians but by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanian, a cleric who is the head of the Tavush diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, an area affected by the concessions.
The answer to the first question lies in understanding people's feelings. Part of Armenian society is exhausted and fed up with the uncertainty of the country's fate and successive defeats in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations over the past four years: the defeat in the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenia and occupation of up to 200 square kilometers of territory in 2021 and 2022, the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh followed by its military occupation in September 2023 and the forced relocation of Armenians. According to the CRRC Armenian “Caucasus Barometer” survey of June 2022, about 98% of Armenians questioned are against Azerbaijan's control over Nagorno-Karabakh, even if Armenians are allowed to live there, which is an indicator of how Armenians perceived the military occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 and the forced relocation of Armenians.
There is also dissatisfaction in Armenian society with the border demarcation process announced in March 2024 in the Tavush region. According to a survey published by the MPG organization in early April 2024, 80% of respondents were against this process. The government's decision to exclude the Nagorno-Karabakh issue from government communications and narratives, and to remove sections on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the official web pages of the Presidential Administration and the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, probably only fueled dissatisfaction further. President Aliyev's assertive and aggressive rhetoric, threatening to use an “iron fist” against Armenia at any time if Armenia decides not to implement Azerbaijan's demands, and his growing list of demands, only heighten doubts and concerns of the Armenian public. Thus, there was an underwater tension in part of the public, and it only took a little spark to mobilize it.
And here is the answer to the second question: why did the archbishop lead the protests? The main explanation for this phenomenon is the lack of trust of the Armenian people in politicians and the lack of alternatives. Since 2018, Armenian politics has been mainly focused on the forces that ruled Armenia before 2018 or those that came to power after the Velvet Revolution. According to a March 2024 IRI poll, 60% of respondents do not trust any of the current Armenian politicians. In the September 2023 Yerevan mayoral elections, about 29% of voters participated, which was another evidence of the lack of trust in existing political parties. Thus, we are in a situation in Armenia where many are ready to protest, but do not want to associate with any political party or person. In this situation, Archbishop Bagrat, the spiritual leader of the Armenians living in Tavush and who sees himself as responsible for their well-being, decided to lead the protests in Tavush and was able to mobilize at least a part of those dissatisfied with the trajectory of Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations.
After the protests reached Yerevan on May 9, gathering between 32,000 and 44,000 people in the capital according to various sources, political factions, including members of the former government, became more visible in the crowds. The parliamentary opposition parties, the former ruling Republican Party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, signaled their support for the protests, along with extra-parliamentary opposition parties and movements, such as the Democratic Union Party, the Democratic Alternative Party, and the Hayakube Movement. The involvement of parties, including those in power before 2018, is a sign that they want to use the momentum for their own political ends. This time, however, the protests are being led by clergy rather than political parties, a rarity in Armenia since 1991.
What we are witnessing in Armenia are mainly anger-driven protests, which different factions are using or trying to use for their own gains. One might think that the fact that Prime Minister Pashinyan was able to remain in power after the defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and that there were no mass protests after the military occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 means that Armenians are indifferent or willing to submit to any solution imposed by Azerbaijan. The current situation shows the opposite. If Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations continue within the current paradigm of Armenia making any concession to Azerbaijan’s demands, we will likely see more protests in Armenia and destabilize the current government. If the people’s grievances remain unresolved, the current government will be forced to rethink its politics or a new government will come into power that will try to change the logic behind the negotiations. Azerbaijan will reject these attempts, and Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations will stall as Armenia’s democratization efforts stall.
The only way to prevent such a development is for Azerbaijan to drop its maximum ultimatums, be content with what it has gained in 2020-2023, and take realistic steps towards peace with its neighbor.
Source: Benjamin Poghossian is a senior foreign policy researcher at APRI Armenia and founder and chairman of the Center for Political, Economic and Strategic Studies in Yerevan. Photo: A large rally in Yerevan on May 9 called for Prime Minister Pashinyan's resignation. Views expressed in opinion articles and commentaries do not necessarily reflect the position of commonspace.eu or its partners.
Source link
