It's surreal to be here. More than three years after he unwillingly left office, after numerous investigations into his conduct and more than a month of deliberations in a New York City courtroom, the criminal trial of former President Donald Trump is nearing completion. All that remains are briefings by the prosecution and defense before 12 New Yorkers receive instruction and make the most consequential decision in the history of our nation.
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It is unclear how long the jury will deliberate. Though reporters and legal analysts scrutinize their facial expressions and body language, it is still impossible to know what each person's initial thoughts and feelings will be when they enter the jury room, or how those thoughts and feelings may change if they are challenged. But my sense is that whatever happens, America is simply not prepared for the new chapter that a verdict, or lack of one, in Trump's trial would bring.
Once the jury foreman announces its decision, previous assumptions about the 2024 presidential election will need to be recalculated.
At least three options await the trial: Trump could be found guilty of falsifying business documents to hide hush payments made to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. The jury could conclude that the prosecution hasn't proven its case and acquit him outright. Or the jury could report they are unable to reach a consensus and Judge Juan Marchan could declare a mistrial.
Assuming there is a verdict, once the jury foreman announces his decision, we will need to recalculate previous assumptions about the 2024 presidential election. Polls conducted since Trump was first indicted have only asked respondents to consider assumptions. A March Politico/Ipsos survey found that if Trump is convicted, just over one-third of independents would likely lose their support in the fall. Similarly, a February NBC News poll found that a guilty verdict in the New York trial would cause Trump to lose a large portion of support from independents, resulting in a large shift among 18-34 year olds to support President Joe Biden instead of Trump. And an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in late April found that 20% of Trump supporters surveyed would “reconsider (16%) or withdraw (4%) their support” if he was convicted.
We are finally moving from possibility to hard reality, but it may be very different from poll-based projections. And while those statistics may be encouraging for Democrats, they still leave some important questions unanswered. None of the above polls asked voters how acquittal would affect their support for the former president, but that remains a possibility. And there's no guarantee that the number of people who change their votes would be enough to change the outcome of the election in any given state. NBC News made the following reservation about its poll results, which showed an overall tilt toward Biden in the face of conviction, but still within the margin of error:
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who is the Republican wing of the nonpartisan group of pollsters conducting the NBC News survey, cautioned that the very small number of voters who switched their vote between the two ballots (a total of 55 out of 1,000 interviewed) have an overwhelmingly unfavorable opinion of Biden and also prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 points.
As a result, McInturff said he doubts these voters would actually support Biden even if Trump were convicted of a felony.
Biden has remained silent about Trump's legal troubles as the case progresses, but NBC News recently reported that Biden's campaign is preparing to use a guilty verdict to its advantage, internally debating whether to characterize Trump as a “convicted felon” in messaging. Whatever the outcome, a person familiar with the discussions told NBC News that the campaign will stress to voters that “Donald Trump's legal troubles will not keep him from the White House. The only thing that will do that is voting for Joe Biden in November.” But if acquitted, it remains to be seen whether another instance of Trump seemingly escaping responsibility will encourage or discourage Democrats from voting.
We are now finally moving from possibility to stark reality, which may look quite different from poll-based predictions.
Depending on the jury's verdict, Trump will either praise or denounce the system, as he always does. A conviction in state court cannot be overturned even if he is reelected president. It would be another asterisk next to his name, another addition to his list of humiliations. It would be another grievance for him to avenge, but an appeal would be yet another costly setback for a campaign that has already wasted billions on legal fees. Still, his supporters may shrug and vote for a convicted felon, following the example of the spunky Republicans who showed up to support him in court.
But an acquittal would be another “complete exoneration.” And this time it would be true. (Of course, a trial he claims was rigged would still have proved its worth in his mind.) I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign even touted the unanimous jury as a victory. I can already see one of his many emails bragging about how the unscrupulous Joe Biden (who has nothing to do with the prosecution) couldn't beat him in court. It will encourage his supporters to donate to the “biased Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg,” as I call him in the email, when he prosecutes him again.
Of course, all of this is projection while we wait for the end of the great silence that has reverberated since the defense, which called only one witness, finished testifying on Tuesday. In this liminal zone, the future is not straightforward. Guilty? Innocent? Invalidated? Either way, it will be beyond the scope of what we can really comprehend.
