GUILTY, GUILTY, GUILTY. Donald Trump was convicted as charged. Did anyone honestly think otherwise?
In the first criminal trial of a former president, a New York jury of seven men and five women took about nine and a half hours to find Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying the books of his real estate company. Trump's illegal falsification of business records was to conceal hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels to prevent his sexual relationship from being revealed before the 2016 election.
In other words, he was accused of lying to serve his own interests. Given Trump's record, who doesn't think that's plausible? How many times a day, how many times an hour, does Trump lie loudly and publicly to achieve some political or financial goal?
Trump will be the first convicted former president and seek to be the first convicted felon elected to the presidency. Just a decade ago, it would have been unthinkable that someone with a felony conviction would be the Republican nominee for president, but barring some twist, it now seems likely. It would also have seemed completely unlikely that such a person would actually hold the nation's highest office, but polls suggest it may be possible.
Some analysts have argued that the spectacle of Trump's trial has improved his chances of defeating President Biden in November. Trump has loudly complained over the past two years that he is being persecuted by Democrats who are using the justice system as a “weapon.” This message, amplified by Trump's Republican allies and supplicants, may have generated sympathy for Trump among voters who have come to see him as a victim. His loud claims of “election interference” may have helped.
Follow this authorEugene Robinson's opinion
Or maybe not. A small but potentially meaningful number of Trump voters have said in polls that they would be less likely to support Trump if he were convicted of a crime than if he was merely charged. How many points is the “presumption of innocence” worth in key battleground states?
The truth is, in my opinion, no one knows for sure how Trump’s new certification as a felon will affect his electoral prospects. In any case, politics should not have played a role in Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s decision to move forward with this trial.
Falsifying business records is not as serious a deal as trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election or fleeing to Mar-a-Lago with boxes of classified documents, conduct that has led to Trump being charged in three other currently pending cases. But the way Trump manipulated the figures to hide the $130,000 payment to Daniels was clearly illegal. Trump wanted to keep Daniels' account of their affair secret at least until after the November 2016 election. Illegal conduct by a former president or presidential candidate is still illegal.
Bragg offered to step back, so to speak, and wait while other cases went to trial first, but no other prosecutors were able to move forward, so Bragg got to go to trial by default.
There was poetic justice in the fact that Trump's first criminal trial took place in New York, a city where his name once loomed large over its iconic skyline and the gossip columns of the tabloids. It was only fitting that the charges involved conduct typical of Trump's attitude toward life in general: Never mind if it's technically legal; do whatever's allowed, recalling the motto of his ruthless mentor, legendary crooked lawyer Roy Cohn: “Don't tell me what the law is. Tell me who the judge is.”
The judge in the case, Juan Marchan, was not at all what Trump thought he was. Marchan made it clear from the beginning that he was in charge of the court, no one else. He ordered Trump to be silenced to protect the jury and witnesses. Marchan refused to allow his insults to incite him to jail Trump. Marchan had no patience for the defense's delaying tactics, but was lenient with the defendant when he asked for time off to attend his son's high school graduation.
And because the trial was not televised, it didn't turn into a full-blown circus: Trump packed the courtroom with Republican elected officials, many of them wearing pro-Trump red ties, who could yell in front of the camera crews outside but could only sit quietly while court was in session.
So he's officially guilty. Celebrate or protest.
But if you celebrate, understand that our justice system never got us out of this mess. The courts never stopped Trump from taking back the White House. We must get to the ballot box in November.
