They finally caught him.
Not about Russian collusion. The Ukraine calls. The January 6th insurrection. Classified documents. Or nasty tweets.
They ended up arresting Donald Trump for filing false financial sex story cover-up papers.
Who else but Donald Trump could be charged with something like this? As CNN's Fareed Zakaria said a few days ago, “I can't imagine that the indictments in New York would be brought against a defendant named other than Donald Trump.”
As the verdict was being handed down Thursday afternoon, I was stunned to hear my CNN colleague Jake Tapper say “guilty” 34 times in a row, a historic moment that further divided an already divided country.
And it was equally jarring to watch message after message flood my phone from clearly non-MAGA Republicans, but not Never Trumpers, all saying the same thing: “I don't like this guy, and I think I have to vote for him.”
Lest you think this is just anecdotal, or proof that Scott has odd friends, the Trump campaign reported a flood of online donations minutes after the ruling crashed their systems.
Polls have shown that a guilty verdict doesn't have much of an impact on the voting behavior of most Americans, but Republicans are incensed that their party's presidential nominee, and according to opinion polls, the likely next president of the United States, has been indicted in a heavily Democratic jurisdiction on 34 felony charges that most people can't fully explain.
Essentially, the prosecutors argued that Hillary Clinton might have won if Trump hadn't paid Stormy Daniels for her silence, and that they must convict Trump of covering up campaign finance violations for which he was never charged or convicted in the first place. The Department of Justice and the Federal Election Commission declined to pursue this novel theory, but it was accepted by the Manhattan District Attorney's office.
That sounds crazy. After never coming to the conclusion that “Russia stole the election” in 2016, Democrats have shifted to rationalizing that Hillary Clinton lost because Trump paid off a porn star he allegedly had sex with in 2006. (Trump claims that didn't happen, but Daniels says it did.)
Many in my circle believe this will backfire badly as Republicans gain momentum. Even Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, a Trump staunch supporter, tweeted that “these charges should never have been brought in the first place. I hope the conviction is overturned on appeal.”
In light of the poll results, I'm focusing on two groups of voters: older people and what we in the political industry call “low-information” voters, those who watch very little news beyond fleeting headlines. Older people still remember the “before times” when presidents didn't spend all their time in court, while low-information voters may know very little about Trump other than that he's now a convicted felon.
Biden is strong with older white voters, while Trump is strong with disengaged groups. If either group turns against Trump, that could boost Biden's support. I wouldn't bet on it, but if I were Trump's commander, I would be watching these people very closely in the coming weeks.
A guilty verdict would kick off a critical June for a campaign that has so far been sluggish. Biden has been bogged down for months, with his approval rating languishing around 38% (a record low) and trailing Trump in national and battleground state polls. Voters remain angry at Biden over inflation and immigration. Biden's approval ratings have never stabilised since August 2021, after the devastating, chaotic and deadly withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
When Biden and Trump debate in Atlanta at the end of June, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will likely storm onto the stage and disrupt the party.
The first step to Biden rebuilding his faltering campaign would be for Trump to be convicted, and the second step would be for Biden to win the June 27 debate.
As of June 1, Trump is winning. What happens on July 1? What happens if Trump is convicted, the debate takes place, and Biden's approval rating remains the same after a month?
If you think Democrats are panicking right now (as Politico reported this week), prepare yourself for what comes next, as leading members of the party are loudly questioning whether Biden should be removed from the running if he can't get ahead of convicted felons.
For Trump, the message is clear: The only verdict that matters will be handed down by the American people on November 5th, and as with previous indictments and legal milestones, Trump will have the momentum that is sure to follow it.
Scott Jennings is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and a senior political commentator for CNN. @ScottJenningsKY
