Given history, the only way more Israeli hostages will be freed is through a rescue mission like the one the Israel Defense Forces launched on Saturday.
Hopefully, Hamas can be persuaded, pressured or bribed to release the remaining hostages, but there is little sign that this will work.
True, there was a series of deals in November that led to the release of 105 Israeli prisoners, but the negotiations have been going in circles since then, with CIA Director William J. Burns essentially taking on a second full-time job as America's chief negotiator, trying to free American hostages, convince U.S. allies in the region to pressure Hamas, and make it see sense.
U.S. efforts have stalled, but not for lack of trying. The problem is not that Israel has not made enough concessions. The problem is that Hamas shows little sign of giving up its best remaining bargaining chip.
Israeli intelligence alleges that Hamas leaders, such as Yehya Sinwar, are using some of the surviving hostages as human shields. Hamas won't even say how many of the hostages are still alive. The biggest clues come when Hamas releases propaganda videos. For example, a video released in late April showed Israeli-American hostage Hersh Goldberg Pollin's left arm, severely injured in a Hamas attack on October 7, amputated below the elbow.
Follow this author Jim Geraghty's opinion
In April, as a pause in fighting and exchange of 40 Palestinian hostages – women, sick and elderly – for Israeli prisoners was being negotiated, Hamas said it did not have any hostages who fit the description, a revelation that threw a further hurdle into already difficult negotiations.
Also in month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Qatar to expel Hamas representatives if Hamas continues to refuse to sign a ceasefire with Israel, though Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, remains comfortable in Doha and meets with Qatar's foreign ministers.
And even if Hamas were to agree to a ceasefire in exchange for hostages and prisoners, there is no reason to think it would last: Hamas broke ceasefires with Israel in 2003, 2007 and 2008. Hamas broke at least nine short-term ceasefires in 2014, including one that collapsed within two hours.
Then in November this year, as Israel and Hamas were negotiating a week-long ceasefire extension that included the exchange of prisoners and hostages, Hamas claimed responsibility for a shooting that killed three Israelis at a busy bus stop in West Jerusalem.
See a pattern? Just to be clear, the ceasefire rule is exactly what it sounds like: the shooting must stop. If you don't stop shooting, no one else is obligated to stop either.
On Sunday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan appeared on CBS' “Face the Nation” and argued with a straight face that last weekend's successful hostage rescue mission was just further evidence that Israel and Hamas should both support the administration's ambitious regional peace proposals.
“The most effective, sure and right way to release all the hostages is to reach a comprehensive ceasefire and hostage agreement, which President Biden publicly stated a few days ago. Israel has accepted this, and now we are waiting for Hamas' response. If Hamas agrees to this agreement, there will be a ceasefire, the hostages will return home, more humanitarian aid will flow in, and better days will begin for the Palestinian people.”
Yes, but Hamas is not in favor of that deal, or any other deal that Israel has offered.
The Biden administration and most of the world are patiently waiting for the US-designated terrorist organization Hamas to suddenly have a change of heart and become a more rational negotiator. Hamas is the same group that still regularly promises to “exterminate the Jews.” How many, how many different ways can Hamas say that? Hamas is not interested in a peace deal or a ceasefire, and if it is at all interested in releasing the hostages, it hides it very well.
Even if you still believe Hamas can be persuaded to release the hostages, rescue missions like Saturday's are necessary and a useful tactic to remind Hamas leaders that their stubbornness will have deadly consequences. The hostages are coming home anyway. You can send them back in exchange for some concessions at the negotiating table, or you can let the IDF kick down the door and start shooting. Choose carefully.
