Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania's Department of Political Science recently published a study analyzing the impact abortion will have on the 2022 midterm elections.
Credit: Aviram Jawadi
A new study conducted by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania found that abortion significantly influenced voting in the 2022 election.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and titled “Inflation Didn't Affect Congressional Voting in 2022, But Abortion Did,” was conducted by Diana Mutz, the Samuel A. Stauffer Professor of Politics and Communication, and Edward Mansfield, the Ham Rosen Professor of Political Science. Mutz and Mansfield found that opinions on abortion and the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson played a more significant role in shaping voter behavior than economic issues.
The study calls into question the widely held belief that Americans prioritize economic self-interest when choosing candidates.
“But what we found is that people's views on abortion, combined with the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, directly influenced changes in voting choice from 2020 to 2022,” Matz said.
Mutz also serves as director of the Institute for Civic and Political Studies.
Using two waves of the National Opinion Research Center's Probability Panel Survey, conducted in 2020 and 2022, Matz and Mansfield found that voters who switched support from one party to another did so because of their attitudes on abortion, not their views on inflation or economic issues.
When polls began in 2022, despite continued inflation, about 55% of the national probability sample blamed “neither party” or “both parties” for the country’s fiscal woes, indicating that most voters act on existing economic ideas and either blame only the opposing party or hold neither party responsible at all.
In contrast, abortion policy changes and the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision had a significant impact on voter support in the midterm elections. The study found evidence that voters who support abortion legalization were more likely to switch their vote from Republican to Democrat. The same was true for voters who opposed abortion legalization, who tended to shift their support to the Republican candidate.
But Mutz stressed that any issue can have an impact on voters in both directions.
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“It is often misleading when journalists suggest that a political issue benefits one candidate and harms another,” she said.
She uses the economy as an example, explaining that while one party may face criticism and the other gain an advantage, in reality voters rely on their pre-existing views on economic issues, which affect both parties equally and give neither a clear advantage.
The study examines the importance of economic factors in analyzing US voting behavior, particularly in light of inaccurate predictions of Democratic losses in the 2022 election.
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