NEW YORK (AP) — About half of U.S. adults approve of Donald Trump's recent felony convictions, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Policy Research. The survey shows signs of a rebound in support for Trump as he seeks to become the first U.S. president with a felony record, but also some potential weaknesses.
With less than five months until Election Day, polls are highlighting how firmly entrenched the public's opinions of the controversial Republican former president are, with overall views of Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden unchanged since before Trump's guilty verdict in his New York hush-money trial.
But the findings suggest that Trump's conviction is another weak spot for disaffected Republican supporters: While most people in the U.S. have heard about the conviction, political independents haven't paid as much attention and are more likely to have a neutral opinion of Trump's conviction, suggesting there is still room for the campaign to sway them.
Nancy Houser, a 74-year-old independent from West Palm Beach, Florida, has only followed the trial briefly but said she supports convicting Trump. She said the verdict suggests Trump may engage in criminal conduct if he returns to the White House.
“I wonder how you can run a country if you're convicted of a crime, especially a felony, a serious crime,” she said.
But she also has concerns about Biden, particularly about his age and his leadership on the economy and the Israeli war. Biden is 81; Trump turns 78 on Friday.
“I don't know who to vote for,” Hauser said. “And that's what's sad.”
Overall, U.S. adults are more likely to support Trump's conviction than to oppose it, according to the survey of 1,115 adults nationwide, conducted over three days, one week after the May 30 verdict and before Biden's son, Hunter, was convicted on a federal firearms charge on Tuesday.
About three in 10 are somewhat or strongly opposed to convicting Trump, and about two in 10 are neither in favor nor against it. Views are similar among voters, with about half saying conviction was the right choice.
Republicans are less in agreement with the verdict than Democrats: About 6 in 10 Republicans are somewhat or strongly opposed to a conviction, while 15% of Republican adults are in favor and about 2 in 10 Republicans are undecided. In contrast, more than 8 in 10 Democrats are somewhat or strongly in favor.
About half of Americans say the conviction was politically motivated, but nearly half think it was not. Nearly half of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of Trump do not believe the conviction was politically motivated, while fewer than one in ten Republicans who have a favorable view of Trump think so.
Overall opinion of Trump remained largely unchanged.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump, which is consistent with findings from an Associated Press-NORC poll conducted in February. Four in 10 have a favorable view of President Trump, also little changed from February.
The numbers for Biden are similarly poor, with 4 in 10 U.S. adults having a favorable view of the Democratic president, while about 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view.
Ron Schwartz, a 59-year-old self-described moderate Republican from Dallas, said Trump is “probably guilty” of the alleged crimes, but Schwartz believes politics played a large role in the case.
He said the charges should not have been felonies, the kind of crime that in many states bars convicted people from owning guns or voting. Still, Schwartz plans to vote for Trump, as he did in the past two presidential elections, despite his serious concerns about the former president's character.
“I think he's a terrible person,” Schwartz said, “but he has good policies and good ideas.”
Independents overall are divided on Trump, with about four in 10 having a positive view and nearly half having an unfavorable view. A majority (nearly half) do not have a strong opinion on conviction, saying they neither support nor oppose it.
Kathy Carey, a 60-year-old independent who lives in suburban Milwaukee, admitted she hadn't paid much attention to the details but said the guilty verdict was not good for Trump.
“I believe Trump is the worst choice for our country because of his divisive nature,” Carrey said, also lamenting Biden's advanced age, as he turns 82 in November.
“I really hope that one day in my lifetime I'll be able to vote for a candidate instead of against them,” she said.
Overall, Americans are more likely to think that convicting Trump would be bad for the country.
About 4 in 10 adults say criminal convictions are a bad thing for the country overall, about a third say they are a good thing, and about 2 in 10 say they are undecided.When it comes to the U.S. democratic system, about 4 in 10 say criminal convictions are a good thing, and about the same percentage say they are a bad thing.
Trump remains overwhelmingly unfavorable to Democrats, with nine in 10 Democrats holding an unfavorable view of him and about eight in 10 saying they have a “very unfavorable” view of him.
Oscar Baza, a 29-year-old Mexican immigrant and Democrat who lives in Los Angeles, said he supported Trump's ruling, calling it proof “the judicial process is working the way it should.”
“I'm really concerned that he's running,” Baza said. “If you've been convicted of something 34 times, you probably shouldn't be leading anything and you should be in therapy.”
The poll was conducted June 7-10, 2024 among 1,115 adults using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
Sanders reported from Washington.
