China's outbound travel market is on the mend, with bookings expected to grow by nearly 400% in 2024 compared to 2018, according to a new report from Sabre, which utilises data from Sabre Market Intelligence MIDT, Sabre Market Intelligence Tickets, OAG Air Capacity and Sabre Market Intelligence Global Demand.
Before the pandemic, Chinese travelers made 155 million trips abroad, spending a total of $245 billion, so it's clear why the world has been eagerly awaiting China's big re-entry into the global tourism market.
Chinese travelers are notoriously big spenders while traveling, spending an average of $1,000 per day while traveling, and with China's per capita disposable income nearly doubling in the nine years to 2023, there's potential for more money to be spent on travel.
Key findings
Overall surge: International travel from mainland China will grow 392% globally in 2024, with some destinations seeing growth of over 2,000%. Visa-free travel: Chinese travelers are taking advantage of reciprocal visa-free agreements, expanding their travel options. Affordable airfares: Airfares have dropped significantly, making travel more accessible to Chinese tourists. Popular destinations: Some of the fastest-growing routes among Chinese travelers include Macau, Australia, Japan, Russia, and Bangladesh. Premium travel: Business class travel has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels, with premium economy travel on the rise. Airline capacity: Some routes have seen airline capacity for international travel increase by more than 3,000% to accommodate growing demand.
Regional insights
Asia Pacific (APAC):
Bookings for trips to Asia Pacific countries during peak travel periods such as Chinese New Year reached 106% of 2019 levels. Bookings in October, which coincides with the Golden Week holiday, increased 1,347% year-on-year.
Europe and the Middle East (EMEA):
International travel to EMEA peaked in January, up 676% year-on-year, and is expected to see a massive increase in bookings in December 2024 of over 2,000% year-on-year.
Americas:
North American travel grew 336% in the first quarter, second only to Asia Pacific. Latin American destinations also saw an increase in bookings, especially in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Destination Trends
Sabre's report highlights that while traditional destinations remain popular, new ones are emerging: Australia and Malaysia have both ranked in the top 10 destinations for Chinese tourists, with Australia rising seven places and Malaysia jumping from 18th to 9th.
Notable increases were also seen in Macau, the UK, Kazakhstan and Bangladesh, highlighting the diversifying travel preferences of Chinese tourists.
The report also finds that recent visa waiver agreements are having a significant impact on travel patterns: Singapore, for example, saw a 466% increase in inbound bookings from China, while Malaysia saw a 651% increase in Chinese travelers, and Russia saw a 758% increase in Chinese tourists, reflecting the benefits of these agreements.
There is also a 15-day visa-free entry scheme for Swiss and Irish citizens.
Saber notes that airlines are increasing capacity in response to the surge in demand. For example, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu have increased departing capacity by 400%, 560%, and 3,200%, respectively. These hubs have also seen significant increases in arriving capacity. At the same time, airfares have fallen, with some routes seeing price cuts of up to 73%, making travel more affordable.
Despite lower fares, many Chinese travelers are opting for higher travel classes. As a percentage of trips booked, Sabre's report predicts that business class travel will be slightly below 2019, at 3.6% in 2024, down from 3.7% in 2019. First class travel will decline by 0.4%, while premium economy travel will increase by 0.8%, highlighting opportunities for airlines and travel agents to cater to passengers looking to upgrade their usual experience.
Sabre data highlights that Chinese travelers will return to the global tourism scene in a big way in 2024. With only around 13% of Chinese nationals holding passports, the potential for growth is ample. The travel industry must focus on understanding and catering to the preferences of Chinese travelers to effectively capture their purchasing power.
