LONDON: A recent YouGov poll conducted for The Times newspaper has put Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party ahead of Chancellor Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party for the first time, just weeks before the UK general election on July 4. The survey, conducted with 2,211 participants on June 12-13, showed Reform UK's support at 19%, up 2 percentage points from the previous poll, while the Conservatives remained unchanged at 18%. The opposition Labour Party maintained its lead with 37% of the vote.
The poll results came after Sunak pledged to cut workers' tax by £17 billion in his party's election manifesto. Meanwhile, Reform UK's popularity has risen since Farage, known for his key role in the successful Brexit campaign, returned to the forefront of politics after taking over as party leader and announcing his intention to stand for parliament. “This is the tipping point. The only votes that will be wasted now are Conservative votes. We are Labour's challengers and we are on our way,” he said confidently in a video posted to X.
Reform UK, a small right-wing party founded in 2018 under the name Brexit Party, advocates for populist policies such as tougher immigration laws. Sunak's campaign has also faced setbacks, including harsh criticism for withdrawing from the Normandy Landings Anniversary events earlier than other world leaders. While Reform UK outperformed the Conservatives in this poll, it is important to note that other polls have shown the Conservatives with a larger lead over Reform UK.
Although Reform UK performed well in terms of vote share nationwide, the nature of the UK electoral system means that the party is not expected to win many seats. In a “winner-take-all” system without proportional representation, Reform UK could garner millions of votes across the country without winning a majority in any of the 650 constituencies that make up the UK Parliament. In contrast, support for larger, more established parties such as Labour and the Conservatives tends to be concentrated in certain regions, giving them an advantage in winning seats.
