There's at least one E3 tradition that's been around longer than E3 itself: picking winners and losers for the event.
It was a decentralized, largely subjective process of judgment and evaluation that was sometimes wildly inaccurate and misguided, but at other times would dictate the direction of the competitive landscape for the coming year. Whatever the missteps that ultimately marred E3 (and there were many), the show's placement on the calendar was no coincidence; the show strikes the perfect balance at the point when companies are finalizing their holiday release schedules and getting ready to look forward to the next year's flagship titles. Whether or not it's centered around trade shows, the beginning of June is always a milestone for games companies to keep an eye on.
So, this will always be an opportunity to take your finger on the pulse and trends of the market leaders in your industry and, even if you don't declare clear winners and losers, at least get a sense of where things are headed over the next 12 to 18 months.
This year, I don't think such speculation is really necessary, because this is a rare year where there is a clear winner: Microsoft.
Microsoft “won” E3, whatever the heck E3 is called, but it fell far short. If you want to quantify it, you can measure it by whatever criteria you want. The games that Microsoft announced and showed off were the most watched and praised, no matter what criteria you use. For perhaps the first time since the Xbox 360 generation, Microsoft will leave (the ghost of) E3 with a software pipeline that is clearly far ahead of its rivals' offerings so far. This will be a very significant boost not only to the public perception of Xbox, which has struggled over the past year, but also, no doubt, to the company's own confidence.
Something else worth noting (and this is a big one) is something else that's become very clear over the past week: there were different visions for what Not-E3 was and what role it should play, and there was a strong impression that Sony was preparing to announce a completely different event than the one Microsoft had envisioned.
If so, that's Sony's mistake. Microsoft brought an incredibly solid presentation to the table, unveiling a string of high-profile, fan-favorite titles that would have easily ranked among the top E3 ​​events back when E3 still existed. Sony's meager offering felt like a pretty standard announcement livestream crammed into a massive two-week event, and there's a good chance that that's what it was (and there's a good chance that the Nintendo Direct event scheduled for the next few days will be similarly low-key).
One good event can't completely change public perception tarnished by studio closures and thoughtless comments, but it finally feels like Xbox is ready to offer PlayStation a true competitor.
This raises the issue of visibility. We know that Microsoft takes its non-E3 opportunities very seriously and has shown us a pretty big chunk of what's in the pipeline (which is great). But it's not clear how much of Sony's upcoming software roadmap we've actually seen, and it's unlikely we'll get more than a cursory glimpse of Nintendo's plans. The disagreement in these companies' visions about the meaning of June's showcase season and its purpose is an echo of the broader disagreement that ultimately brought about the demise of E3 itself, torn between too many competing visions for what the show could and should be.
None of this will stop Xbox from finally putting on a really good show. So far, Xbox is the platform to beat in terms of software offerings for the next 12-18 months. This is the first time it feels like Microsoft's hugely expensive acquisitions are really paying off. The platform still has a lot of work to do (one good event can't completely change public perception tarnished by studio closures and thoughtless comments), but it finally feels like Xbox is ready to offer a real competitor to PlayStation in a way that really matters. The last time it was like that, we were all a lot younger. And the stars aligned in the same way. Just as Microsoft was finding its footing as a software publisher, Sony stumbled and in many ways became a victim of its own success.
Of course, it remains possible that Sony could have a lot more to show, especially with its 2025 pipeline. Despite the success of Helldivers 2 and the huge appeal of Astro Bot, this year has already been a dud in some ways.
Microsoft has a long line-up of titles due for release over the next 12 to 18 months.
One of the consequences of this new, disjointed, set of summer events is the lack of agreement on what will and won't be announced at Not-E3. Take hardware, for example: Microsoft mentioned a few new SKUs for its console, but Sony said nothing about the specced-out Pro model we know is coming later this year. And we already know that next week's Nintendo Direct event won't announce anything about the Switch successor.
In the heyday of E3, new hardware announcements like this were a given (at least for Sony; Nintendo has always been unpredictable in this regard, doing strange things like announcing new devices at Tokyo Game Show despite not having a booth there itself).
No mention of new hardware makes me wonder what other editorial choices were made. Sony chose hero shooter Concord to lead the way, which seems like a perfectly good game but in retrospect was a poor choice as the showcase's flagship product, in stark contrast to Microsoft's hit-after-hit approach. Microsoft dodged a bullet that I was already expecting and flinching from, ruining at least one big announcement by making the game a live service.
The assumption most consumers who followed the showcase (and we mean a lot of people; the cumulative views of the various versions of these events uploaded to YouTube are huge) would have was that updates to Sony's big franchises and new titles from its most acclaimed studios are still too early in development to show off, which may explain why the release schedule is so quiet in 2025. This doesn't look good for the market leader, but this could just be an editorial decision.
This isn't a giant enemy crab moment, but it's very rare that PlayStation's pipeline looks this weak.
Presumably, there are plans to announce some upcoming games alongside the PS5 Pro reveal at an event later this year. Gamescom in late August and TGS in September are both perfect times for such events. Similarly, with most showcases and announcements being online these days, Sony can throw darts at the calendar and pick a date that suits it. This wasn't really an option until relatively recently.
All of this speaks to very different visions of what a Not-E3 or eventual E3 replacement should look like from the three most important platform holders. It's also notable that other very important platform holders such as Apple and Google weren't really present at all. Apart from a brief mention at Apple's WWDC event, it's still a bit incomprehensible to me that the mobile platform holders have not tried to get into this field with their own games showcases.
But at the same time, there's no denying that the past two weeks have had a bit of the magic of the E3 of old, at least from my perspective in a very inconvenient time zone on another continent. It's very clear that consumers want these showcase events, and many publishers seem determined to value this as an opportunity for major announcements in a way that hasn't happened in recent years. The value of this point on the calendar as an opportunity to draw mass attention to the games the industry is preparing for the rest of the year and beyond has not diminished, but the biggest market players are taking very different approaches to what that means.
It will be very interesting to see how this year's event changes the company's attitude going into next year. Sony remains in a commanding lead as the market leader, but it would be foolish not to be at least a little shaken by the stark difference in public reaction to its event versus Microsoft's. This should prompt a rethink of strategy heading into this year's showcase season.
This isn't the worst blunder. It's not a giant crab moment by any means. But it's very rare these days that PlayStation has looked this weak in terms of its upcoming pipeline compared to its rivals. Sony needs to be very wary of this perception lasting too long, or even being reinforced by future events. No matter how far PlayStation leads right now, it's up against fierce competitors with nearly $100 billion worth of studios and publishers. And it's not likely Sony will be able to set the rules and pace of public announcements and showcases in the future.
The summer showcase season should be a competitive arena, with all the major companies bringing their best performances to the table. Perhaps with a renewed competitive spirit in the industry, we can eventually find a coherent formula for a true successor to E3.
