Republicans claim their winning strategy lies in campaigning against President Biden's record in 2024. There's just one problem: They're actually campaigning against his record in 2022.
A lot has changed in the last two years. Most of Biden's major political weaknesses have been improved upon, except, of course, his age. But it seems like no one has updated the talking points: not Republican politicians, not voters, and often not the media.
Republicans have campaigned on the “Biden Crisis” and promised to make America a “safe country.” Voters also seem to believe that crime is still rising. In reality, the nation's crime rate is falling. By some measures, it's even lower than it was under Trump.
Crime of all kinds has surged during the pandemic, but the trends have reversed over the past few years. For example, the FBI's quarterly estimates released this week show violent crime will fall 15% year over year in the first quarter of 2024, with even bigger declines in rape and murder. If this trend continues for the rest of the year, the U.S. could see its largest annual decline in violent crime ever.
In fact, based on the decline in the murder rate observed so far this year, the murder rate in 2024 is expected to be at or below the rate of each year of President Donald Trump's term, according to an analysis by consulting firm AH Datalytics.
(Speaking of crime, Republican claims that Biden is weaponizing the criminal justice system should be outdated following his son's felony conviction. Unfortunately, Republicans can't seem to let go of that claim either.)
Or consider immigration.
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To be sure, the U.S.-Mexico border has been in chaos for some time, and the problem needs more resources and new policy tools (perhaps something like the bipartisan border bill that Trump rejected), but recent numbers suggest that illegal border crossings between ports of entry are currently declining at a time when they would normally increase.
Preliminary data shows that border apprehensions in May are below the levels seen in May over the past three years. In fact, illegal border crossings are below the levels seen in the same month in 2019, the final pandemic year of the Trump administration.
You may also need to consider energy.
Republican politicians and strategists often claim that Biden has waged an energy war: Trump says Biden has “blocked oil and ended American 'energy independence.'” Such claims might have sounded plausible in 2022, when U.S. crude oil production was below pre-pandemic levels.
Oil production has skyrocketed since then. In recent months, the United States has produced more crude oil than at any time in history. In fact, the U.S. now produces more oil than any other country. And it's not just about oil: Nearly every major form of energy production or storage has recently reached record highs.
For more than two years, the United States has been a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, meaning it exports more than it imports. Being a net exporter is what Republicans usually mean when they say the United States was “energy independent” during the Trump administration. It was indeed energy independent for the final months of the Trump administration. But it has been energy independent for much longer under the Biden administration, more than two years. This inconvenient fact barely penetrates Republican rhetoric.
Finally, inflation. Republicans often talk about the highest inflation in decades and soaring food prices. It is true that one of the main measures of inflation has soared to 9% year over year, the highest level in nearly 40 years. But this dubious achievement was achieved in June 2022.
Inflation has fallen significantly since then, to just over 3% in the latest report from May, released this week. Food inflation has fallen even more sharply, from a peak of 13.5% in mid-2022 to just 1% year-over-year in the latest data.
To be clear, consumers want prices to fall across the board, but that rarely happens (and when it does, it's a sign the economy is in serious trouble). The fact that food prices are rising at a slower pace than they will in 2022 probably won't appease consumers. Republicans are taking advantage of this situation by calculating “Biden inflation” over longer time periods, such as several years, which is not how inflation is usually measured.
As I've written ad nauseam, the president is not omnipotent. His policies can certainly influence things, but he doesn't control the economy, crime rates, energy prices, the stock market, or all the other things he's blamed for (or credited for). That said, if Republicans are going to hold the president responsible for everything that happens during his term, they should at least cover the entire term.
