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Britain's usually abundant grain harvest is struggling, and politicians and consumers may feel the effects along with farmers.
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Bloomberg News
Celia Burgin
Published June 16, 2024 • 6 minute read
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Ministry of Environment and Food
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(Bloomberg) — From tractors trapped in muddy pastures to sewage spilling into clogged waterways, unusually heavy rains and floods have wreaked havoc on British farmers this year. The wet, turbulent weather, exacerbated by climate change, is hampering their ability to supply the bread, beer and home-grown produce that fills nearly every grocery store.
According to the Met Office, the UK experienced its sixth wettest spring since records began in 1836. This resulted in devastating damage to crops such as wheat and barley, which the UK normally produces just enough to meet domestic demand. The unseasonable weather also delayed supplies of British strawberries and caused livestock deaths.
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As a result, Britain's food self-sufficiency will fall by 8% this year and it will need to import more, said the think tank Energy and Climate Information Unit, which said that this could lead to higher food prices – a reminder of the growing threat that climate change poses to the UK economy.
For potatoes and other crops, “there's shrinkflation as supermarkets try to hold prices steady,” said Harry Campbell, produce analyst at commodity data firm Mintec. Procurement companies are trying to shore up supplies of affected produce elsewhere or using contracts to mitigate risk, but their goal is “to make a profit, and ultimately the burden will be passed on to consumers if the weather doesn't improve,” Campbell said.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring and driving up the cost of living around the world, prompting countries to consider how to reduce their exposure to global supply chains. Last month, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs published the UK's first Food Security Index, concluding that food supplies are “broadly stable,” but that wet weather is having “potentially significant effects” on domestic production of some crops. Around 60% of the food Britons eat is grown domestically, a figure the government is desperate to increase.
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Britain's ruling Conservative Party, polling dismally ahead of a general election in July, is trying to avoid more bad news and rally support among voters, including those in farming communities. Chancellor Rishi Sunak launched a 50 million pound ($64 million) flood aid package for farmers in April, but for many the aid won't help this year's crops.
Flooded farm
Farmer Henry Ward was finally able to start work on his farm in Lincoln, England, on June 4 after his fields were destroyed by floods twice in six months.
Ward's Short Ferry farm normally supplies wheat to bakery Warburtons and spring barley to brewers Coors and Budweiser. Ward missed his March planting because his fields didn't dry out in time. “We're missing out on over £100,000 in revenue from what should have been harvested,” he said, from inside his grain elevator as stocks slowly depleted.
Only one of Short Ferry Farm's 200 acres survived the flood: a patch of green land with a cracked surface, as if it'd been hit by drought. Ironically, the thick crust was created by water pressure. It smells rotten, and Ward likens the look to crème brûlée. Beneath is sticky soil lacking oxygen, and without tillage, it would be difficult to grow crops.
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It's not just grains that are being affected by the unseasonable weather: British strawberries are expected to arrive in supermarkets two weeks later than usual due to the overcast and cool weather, while Scottish broccoli may also arrive later than expected.
Livestock have also suffered from the weather, with Short Ferry Farm having to evacuate ewes that were very pregnant, resulting in around 15 per cent of Ward's lambs being stillborn.
This year's heavy rains are the latest climate upheaval for British agriculture, which in 2022 suffered its worst drought in almost 50 years, leaving reservoirs drying up and crops withering.
Helen Hooker, a research scientist at the University of Reading's School of Meteorology, said the UK will be particularly hard hit by this trend. “We're likely to see more winter rainfall in the UK,” Hooker said, “and we'll see more of these very heavy rainfall days in the summer.”
The problem is becoming more complicated
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board predicts that the UK will import 60% more wheat this season than last year to top up supplies.
Still, it's hard to find European suppliers unaffected by extreme weather: Flooded fields in France have limited crop growth, unseasonable cold and drought have hit grain growing in the Black Sea, and Germany was hit by floods earlier this month.
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Britain may have to look as far as Canada for good quality wheat, said Tom Molnar, CEO of London-based bakery Gayles, which has sourced its wheat mainly from British growers for the past six years. While wheat prices elsewhere have fallen from peaks this year, British prices have continued to rise.
Molnar said large-scale bread producers could be hit harder by rising grain prices than higher-end stores like Gales.
Other risks facing the UK supply chain may lie at the hands of private companies that manage the country's ageing water infrastructure. Storm drains designed to deal with heavy rainfall are ageing and increasingly being filled with sewage by water companies, prompting public health warnings in some areas to avoid swimming in streams and to boil water before use.
“The sewer companies are getting away with it,” said Wiltshire farmer Ben Cooper, who saw human waste wash into his front garden. He also planted crops later than usual and got his tractor stuck in muddy fields in a rush to get to work.
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Flooding at Short Ferry Farm was exacerbated by a blockage in the natural waterway which required debris to be dredged from the riverbed, and the Environment Agency paid £3 million to repair the riverbank at the site boundary after the 2019 floods, but sadly it could not prevent the latest destruction.
The future of food
Henry Ward expects it will take up to four years for his land to recover to the same yield it had before the flood. An acre of undeveloped wheat that couldn't be treated with herbicides and is overrun with weeds will be replaced with a mix of kale, sunflowers and triticale as winter bird food. Ward says he can't start producing food until at least March 2025.
British arable farmers have launched a campaign to highlight the plight of this year's harvest and call for the next government to introduce new policies aimed at domestic production and protecting the environment, while parts of the farming community are considering their own climate solutions to deal with extreme weather.
Having survived two major floods since taking over the land in 2019, Mr Ward and his neighbours have urged the Environment Agency and ministers to use their land to help manage Lincoln's water system, rather than battling unpredictable natural events every year.
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“We could sacrifice this land to hold floodwaters and turn it into a nature preserve,” Ward said. “Sacrificing maybe 500 acres here could save a lot of homes for a lot of people and potentially thousands of acres downstream for food production.”
These water reserves could help the next time drought hits, but less land for cultivation could ultimately hurt efforts to grow the UK's domestic food supply. It's all part of the troubling future the UK faces as it tries to adapt to a rapidly changing climate.
“It's heartbreaking,” Ward says as he watches farmers prepare land for bird food. [land] “It feels like we're admitting defeat when we should be producing food.”
—With assistance from Olivia Radgard.
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