The results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections have created a great upset in the state's political arena. The Indian Union won 30 seats in the state, an increase of 21 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could only secure 17 seats, 20 fewer than last time, after excluding the members belonging to the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). In terms of vote share, both alliances received around 44% support.
In terms of state legislative lead, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is ahead in over 150 seats, well above the majority of 145. In the current state assembly, the Mahayuti, consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP, has 205 state legislators. In contrast, the opposition Congress Party, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar's NCP have 73 state legislators. With state assembly elections just a few months away, the results of the Lok Sabha elections indicate widespread dissatisfaction with “jodh-todh” or patchwork politics, putting the BJP in a distinctly inferior position. Adding to its concerns, out of the 15 times the BJP and the Congress have faced off against each other in the state, the latter has won 11 seats.
A “political blunder”?
The BJP recently held a general meeting in Delhi where Devendra Fadnavis offered to step down as deputy chief minister and instead help strengthen the party's organisation ahead of the state assembly elections. Also, in a recent article in the RSS's newspaper, The Organiser, RSS ideologue Ratan Sharda criticised the inclusion of Ajit Pawar's NCP faction in the state government, saying it had created discontent among BJP activists. Sharda flatly called it a “political blunder” on the part of the BJP.
That is not entirely off the mark. BJP and NCP cadres have been at odds for a long time, especially in western Maharashtra. The alliance seemed unnatural to many and unlikely to work smoothly on the ground. And while Ajit's NCP managed to win just one of the four seats allotted to it, Sharad Pawar's faction won eight of the ten it contested, clearly highlighting who the real boss was. Nearly a quarter of the NCP voters before the split, comprising a sizeable minority, appear to have stayed with Sharad Pawar.
More crossovers possible
Like rubbing salt into the wound, Sharad Pawar's grandnephew Rohit Pawar said around 18-19 state legislators from the NCP are in touch with him and Sharad Pawar himself and they will be switching over to the parent party after the monsoon assembly session.
Meanwhile, the Sindhe faction of the Shiv Sena won 7 out of the 15 seats it contested, a win percentage of nearly 50%, higher than the BJP. However, while the BJP was able to shift votes to the Sena due to their long-standing alliance, the Sindhe votes could not be smoothly transferred to the BJP as Uddhav Thackeray still had influence over a majority of the Sena's traditional voters. This resulted in the BJP suffering a major defeat, losing 17 of the 23 seats it had won in 2019.
Several in Uddhav's Shiv Sena party claim that around five to six Shinde MPs are in touch with them. Both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar would be happy to welcome back most of the rebel MPs (barring Shinde and Ajit Pawar) if they want Garhwapathi. There are also reports that Chhagan Bhujbal, upset over his rejection of Rajya Sabha nomination, may quit the NCP and switch to Uddhav's side.
Seat sharing issues
Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have emerged as the clear winners in the battle over the traditions of their respective parties. After suffering heavy defeats in Marathwada and Vidarbha due to the Maratha movement and the agrarian crisis, the BJP seems to be in a tight spot. It is likely to use this opportunity to negotiate hard with both its alliance partners over the allocation of seats for the upcoming state assembly elections. The BJP is targeting to win 152 seats on its own and will need to contest a minimum of 200 seats, leaving 40 seats each for the two partners. The NCP has 40 MPs who support the NDA government, while the Shiv Sena has 38.
This factor could trigger defections from the two rebel factions to Uddhav's Shiv Sena or Sharad Pawar's NCP. And the fact that some MLAs from both camps are apprehensive about a possible victory under the NDA banner could hasten that departure even further. Also, the “Modi factor”, which worked in the BJP's favour in the Lok Sabha elections, may not be of much use in the state battle.
Meanwhile, a few state legislators may choose to wait and see. The MVA cannot escape the fight over vote-sharing either, given that Uddhav's party contested the largest number of seats but had the lowest winning percentage. Its largest partner, the Indian National Congress, may flex its muscles to win more seats. In any case, the BJP is hoping for a shrinking alliance before the state elections.
The Lok Sabha election results have set the stage for yet another major upset in Maharashtra, one that has all the makings of a Bollywood titanic flick.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
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