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Neither of the major parties has yet put forward a convincing plan for how they will improve the NHS, according to a leading health think tank.
The Health Foundation said current spending projections mean England could be £38 billion a year short of its required funding by the end of the next parliament.
The think tank said this would put at risk plans to end NHS delays, improve GP care and redevelop hospitals.
Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have said how much they will invest in the NHS, but the Liberal Democrats' promises are well below what the Health Foundation requires.
The think tank only included these three parties in its analysis.
Anita Charlesworth, a former director of public spending at the Treasury and health economist at the Health Foundation, said: “The health service is in crisis and all the major parties say they want to fix it, but the funding promised so far falls far short of what is needed to improve it.”
“Politicians need to be honest with the public about the scale of the challenge facing the NHS and the reality that a future-proof NHS requires long-term, sustainable investment.”
“The general election debate so far has shown a severe lack of candor on this point, with both major parties showing no willingness to detail the difficult choices on public spending and taxation that the next government will face.”
“The scenarios we have set out are less ambitious, are broadly in line with the commitments made by the major political parties and public expectations, and assume that the NHS can deliver challenging improvements in productivity.”
Not enough
The Department of Health and Social Care has a budget of nearly £190 billion this year, the majority of which goes to NHS England and just under £30 billion for training, public health, building maintenance and other areas.
Current public spending forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility show that the health budget will grow by 0.8% per year above the rate of inflation, amounting to an increase of £8 billion per year by 2029-30.
But the figure could be much higher if health is prioritised over other areas of public spending, as has happened over the past decade.
The Health Foundation's analysis found that, taking into account changes in population size and health, an extra 3.8% a year in spending on top of inflation would be needed to improve the condition of hospital buildings, reduce delays in treatment and move more care to the community.
This equates to a £46 billion annual increase in the budget by 2029-30, leaving a shortfall of £38 billion, and the think tank said it also took into account productivity improvements in the NHS.
The Conservatives and Labour have only promised above-inflation increases, while the Liberal Democrats have said they will increase health and care spending by £8 billion by the end of this parliament.
Health is decentralised, meaning that how much of the money available for public spending is spent on health is left to the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, with decisions made primarily by the Westminster government.
