Aaron Rodgers seems like the front-runner for next season's NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. After all, he plays for the biggest market team in the league and is one of the biggest names in American sports. And considering his history after being traded from Green Bay, being hailed as the Jets' savior, and then playing just four plays last year before getting injured, he's a sure bet to win the award.
In the words of Lee Corso, “There's no need to rush, my friends.”
Last year, the overwhelming favorite failed to win.
ORCHARD PARK, New York, USA, August 12, 2023. Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin (3) and linebacker Dorian Williams (42) tackle Indianapolis Colts running back Deion Jackson (35) during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Credit: Gregory Fisher – USA TODAY Sports
Last year, everyone thought that Damar Hamlin would win the award unanimously after his historic comeback from an on-field cardiac arrest the previous season, but it was Joe Flacco who returned at the end of the 2023 season and led the Browns to their first playoff appearance since 2020 after finishing the regular season with a 4-1 record.
The Damar Hamlin story was one of the best in recent NFL history, but when push comes to shove, it's hard to give the award to Hamlin, who recorded just two tackles in the regular season, over Flacco, who literally led the Cleveland Browns from a 7-5 playoff borderline deficit to a solid 11-5 playoff team before missing the final game of the regular season.
No one was going to take the award away from Hamlin, but Flacco was in no position not to win it.
Will the same thing happen in 2024?
If Aaron Rodgers has a great year, he'll be immortalized.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) on the field after the game against the Houston Texans at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA, December 10, 2023. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta – USA Today Sports
The New York Jets are hoping to do well this season. They haven't been to the playoffs in over a decade and when Aaron Rodgers signed with the Jets it seemed like they were already a Super Bowl winner. Things haven't gone according to plan so far, but if Rodgers can lead the Jets to the playoffs for the first time since before Mark Sanchez's hip fumble, he'll get the award because the New York media has a lot of clout.
Unless they have a guy who wins the MVP.
Cincinnati has another player quietly vying for the award: Joe Burrow, who was injured in the 10th game of the season and watched his team fall from 5-4 (with a chance to win in the second half) to 9-8, last in the division.
Burrow is the kind of player who can lead the Bengals to an AFC North championship (in a division that's packed with powerhouses) and would be a favorite to win the award himself, maybe even good enough to be a candidate for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
SI reporter Connor Ohl predicts Aaron Rodgers won't win
The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback throws a pass during warmups before the first quarter of an NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in Cleveland.
SI writer Connor Ohr published “100 Predictions for the NFL Season,” and one of his predictions was that Joe Burrow would follow a similar story to Joe Flacco and take the award away from Rodgers.
“Right now, he (Rodgers) seems like the front-runner, with Joe Burrow considered a close second. But the Joe Flacco magic ruined a heartwarming ending to the Damar Hamlin story, so really, anything can happen.”
I don't see anyone else being nominated for this award unless both of them play horribly. Sure, Joe Flacco was not what anyone expected, but this is not a good-but-not-elite Damar Hamlin scenario. These are two potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks trying to get back to their old ways.
Here are six likely scenarios for this season and see who will take home the award.
Scenario 1 – Both Rodgers and Burrow make the playoffs – 100% RodgersScenario 2 – Rodgers makes the Jets in the playoffs, Burrow doesn’t make it – 100% RodgersScenario 3 – Rodgers makes the Jets in the playoffs, Burrow leads the Bengals to the AFC North Championship – Rodgers 75%Scenario 4 – Rodgers doesn’t make his team in the playoffs, Burrow does – Burrow 80%Scenario 5 – Rodgers doesn’t make his team in the playoffs, Burrow leads the Bengals to the AFC North Championship – Burrow 100%Scenario 6 – Neither team makes the playoffs – Rodgers 50%, other players 50%
Orr believes that with the Jets likely missing the NFL playoffs this year or the Bengals being so dominant, Burrow would arguably be the better candidate.
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