This is the final article in this series on outlier touchdown production, this time focusing on tight ends. My methodology on pass catchers was laid out at the beginning of the RB article, and the core thesis remains the same: players who over- or under-performed in touchdown production last season should regress toward the mean this year. Knowing who those players are can help you take advantage of under-the-radar value and avoid potential misses early in the draft.
Other position TD rate trends: QB | RB | WR
Tight ends' touchdown rates follow a similar curve to wide receivers', being more likely to score in the red zone and less likely to score from further away.
TE Touchdown Rate (by Field Position, last 10 seasons) Line of Scrimmage TD Rate (Target) Opponent 1-5 51.4% Opponent 6-10 31.4% Opponent 11-19 16.8% Opponent 20-29 7.7% Opponent 30-39 2.6% Opponent 40-49 0.9% Own 1-50 0.2% Red Zone (inside 20 yards) 30.1% Total 5.5%
One of the first big takeaways from this data is that tight ends with a higher target share in the red zone and near the goal line get a more dramatic increase in value. And because tight ends' target shares are typically smaller than wide receivers' (Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews aside), this also adds weight to the value of red zone and end zone targets at the position, relatively speaking.
Like the other positions we've covered, there are several players with exceptional touchdown numbers in 2023 who are expected to have positive or negative regressions next season. This includes notable rookies on both sides of the scale.
Which tight end will score the most touchdowns in 2024?
You'll miss it!
To access this article and all tools and rankings, please see below.
ALL PREMIUM CONTENT Most accurate rankings since 2010 Expert draft picks by DraftHero Highest scoring lineups + top available players by LeagueSync …and much more
Source link
