The Biden administration has warned NATO allies that Russia is stepping up covert sabotage and hybrid warfare against Ukraine's backers. To counter the growing Russian threat, U.S. intelligence agencies are providing European partners with information they can use to thwart saboteurs.
This month, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines briefed members of NATO's decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council, about a surge in mysterious attacks linked to Russia that began this spring. Haines summarized the U.S. intelligence efforts and called on allies to expose and blunt Moscow's strategy.
Haines' warnings about Russian interference were briefed by Biden administration and intelligence officials, who did not go into detail, but media reports indicate the scope of the alleged Russian actions, with targets primarily linked to European logistical support for Ukraine.
“this is [Vladimir] “This is Putin's way of turning up the heat,” the official said, referring to the Russian president's signature approach: attacking aggressively and covertly to maximize confusion and damage for his adversaries and minimize danger to himself.
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U.S. officials told me that to conceal their involvement in the recent attacks, Russian intelligence hired local thugs to carry out the operations.
Russian attacks have been widespread across Europe. In March, Britain arrested several suspects after a fire at a Ukrainian-owned warehouse in East London that U.S. authorities reported was storing telecommunications equipment bound for Ukraine. A warehouse owned by the same company in Spain was also set on fire, also storing telecommunications equipment.
Russian attacks are also affecting Ukraine's key European allies. Last month, Poland arrested 12 saboteurs it said were planning to attack supply lines to Ukraine, an official said. Also last month, a fire broke out at a Berlin facility owned by a German company that makes air defense missiles used by Ukraine. Norwegian authorities have also warned that saboteurs could target companies that ship weapons to Ukraine.
The sabotage is a new dimension in Ukraine's increasingly deadly conflict. U.S. officials say Putin is concerned that NATO is moving toward direct intervention against Russia following the U.S.'s approval of $61 billion in military aid in April and Biden's subsequent decision to allow U.S. weapons to be fired at Russian soil. The New York Times ran an earlier story about the sabotage last month.
Haines told the NATO Council that Putin's aim was to disrupt arms supplies, fragment the alliance and prevent further NATO support for Kiev. U.S. officials believe the Russian leader wants to intimidate European nations while staying below the threshold that might cause NATO countries to invoke Article 5 to respond militarily to an attack.
Russian agents may also be trying to spread fear through attacks on civilian facilities. The Czech Republic arrested a suspect in the arson attack on a public bus this month. “It is suspected that the attack was most likely planned and funded by Russia,” the Czech prime minister said. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said a fire that destroyed Warsaw's largest shopping center last month was “most likely Russia's responsibility.”
No civilian casualties appear to have been caused yet by the Russian covert operation, but if they did, administration officials have warned that affected countries could request emergency consultations with NATO under Article 4 of the NATO Charter to discuss a joint response.
The Biden administration's strategy to counter Putin is centered on information sharing. As in the early days of the war, the administration is seeking to exchange as much information as possible with allies to identify and thwart attacks and increase collective resilience. The message they want to send to Russia is that sabotage will not dissuade NATO from supporting Ukraine, but will only cause more trouble for Putin.
“Russia is trying to sow fear and create rifts,” the official said. “We've closed the door for them to do that. If they go any further, it will only harden NATO countries' positions.”
Administration officials are concerned about sabotage but don't believe it will escalate into an all-out confrontation. Putin doesn't want a war with NATO he knows he will lose, they believe; he just wants to weaken the alliance. Administration officials don't think this situation is similar to October 2022, when intelligence agencies believed Putin would likely use tactical nuclear weapons to avoid a collapse of the Russian front in Ukraine and prevent a chaotic withdrawal.
The Ukrainian conflict continues to climb inexorably up a ladder of escalation: Russia attacks, Ukraine defends, NATO sends military aid to Ukraine, Russia retaliates by disrupting NATO supply lines, and with each step, the stakes are higher.
