The June 2016 Brexit referendum alerted us all to the rise of populism and showed that Donald Trump had a real chance of winning. Visiting the UK now, on the eve of a general election, gave me another glimpse of where politics in advanced democracies is heading. Democrats facing a resurgent Trump this autumn should pay close attention.
Every poll you look at seems to be heading for a crushing defeat for the ruling Conservative Party. One poll in particular has caught attention: a Savanta poll for The Telegraph that predicts that Labour will defeat the Conservative Party (also known as the Tories) by 21 points. The pollster's analysis predicts that Labour could win more than 500 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives will barely win 50.
This would be the fewest number of seats the Conservative Party has won since it was formed in 1834. The projections would see many of Britain's most senior cabinet ministers lose in their constituencies, including Rishi Sunak, the first sitting Prime Minister to suffer such a humiliation. It is important to note, however, that other models, based on different data, do not predict such a bad outcome for the Conservatives, but still project a major defeat.
This fall is particularly shocking because the last UK election in 2019 saw the Conservative Party win 365 seats, its highest number since Margaret Thatcher's government, and Labour suffer its worst electoral result since 1935.
Why did the Conservatives fail? Rory Stewart, a former Conservative politician and author of the excellent memoir How to Not Be a Politician, argues that over the past decade the Conservatives have lost one of their most cherished qualities: seriousness. “Labour has been seen as well-intentioned and right-hearted but irresponsible, reckless and often incompetent. The Conservatives have been seen as tough, even heartless, but reliably competent. That reputation has been blighted by the messes of Boris Johnson, Theresa May and others,” he told me.
Follow this author Opinion by Fareed Zakaria
But it's not just incompetence. The Conservatives face a problem that plagues the right almost everywhere: what do they stand for? Since 2010, the Conservatives have positioned themselves as the party of traditional fiscal conservatism (i.e. austerity) under David Cameron, then veered towards Trumpian populism under Boris Johnson, and Thatcherite free-market ideology under Liz Truss. Recently, Nigel Farage's populist far-right Reform Britain Party has been gaining ground in the polls, splitting the Conservative vote and potentially adding to the majority Labour already expects to have.
As I have argued before, politics is shifting from a left-right divide over the economy to an open-closed divide centered on cultural issues like immigration, identity, and multiculturalism. The Conservative party remains internally divided on these issues, but reformers have made it clear that they advocate for a more “closed” Britain. Assuming the Conservatives suffer a humiliating defeat, it is conceivable that Farage could find a way to hijack the Conservative party and make it thoroughly populist (as Trump did with the Republican Party).
So the British right is now divided, while the Republicans are united around Trump. But the real lesson of this election may be for the American left. In Britain, many see this election as a vote against the Conservative government, not for Labour leader Keir Starmer. Starmer has no thrilling charisma, and his approval rating is lower than Tony Blair's in his 1997 landslide victory. But Starmer was a brilliant strategist in positioning the Labour Party. Fraser Nelson, editor of the legendary Conservative publication The Spectator, told me: “The biggest argument for Starmer is that he will handle the country as strategically and effectively as he has handled the Labour Party.” Stewart noted that by occupying the centre, Starmer has pushed the Conservatives further to the right, where there are fewer votes.
Starmer took over from Jeremy Corbyn, a far-left ideologue who was repeatedly accused of anti-Semitism. Starmer has rid the party of extremism, rejected any hint of a policy of consciousness reform, and led the Labour Party firmly to the center, on economic growth and improving public services. The Labour Party has largely accepted the budget cuts proposed by the current Conservative government and has no plans for major new tax measures. Starmer has ruled out a return to the European Union, perhaps because he knows that the possibility of freely accepting immigrants from the European continent would mean ceding the key issue of immigration to the right. Indeed, in a televised debate with Sunak, Starmer attacked the Conservatives from the right, accusing Sunak of being “the most liberal prime minister on immigration ever.”
For me, the lesson from the UK is that to win, the left needs to stick to a more centrist position, ensure that it doesn't get overtaken, especially on immigration, and distance itself from the overly ideological and hyper-conscious politics that alienate many average voters. It's not a strategy that will be applauded by its base, but it's more likely to win elections, and that's more important.
