Here's why border chaos could be an election-year nightmare.
Imagine if hundreds of Tajik migrants from Central Asia entered the United States through a smuggling network, only for the FBI to discover they may have ties to the Islamic State of Khorasan terrorist group. Some of the migrants were arrested almost a year after their arrival, but many still remain unaccounted for.
In our scenario, the FBI is struggling to find a possible ISIS time bomb. They're using wiretaps and stings to find recent entrants who may have some connection to an Islamic State offshoot. But they're struggling to keep up. The Department of Homeland Security's inspector general reports that the FBI doesn't have the screening tools it needs to identify and stop migrants at the border who may have terrorist ties.
This is not a hypothesis, folks. All of these details are real. Intelligence agencies have found no evidence of an organized ISIS-K plot against the United States. But the horrifying truth is that they don't know what's going on in the outside world. America, with its porous borders, is defenseless against the flow of people entering the country every day.
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FBI Director Christopher A. Wray has been issuing stark warnings about the issue for months, most recently in testimony before a Senate committee on June 4, when he said he was “increasingly concerned about the potential for coordinated domestic attacks,” pointing to cases like the attack by Tajik members of ISIS-K at a Moscow concert hall in March that left 139 people dead.
In early June, the FBI and Department of Homeland Security arrested eight Tajik migrants in New York, Philadelphia and Los Angeles. The investigation, which also relied on FBI wiretaps, was first reported by the New York Post, which said that at least one of the suspects had crossed the Mexican border into the US more than a year ago. Surveillance revealed that some of the Tajiks had been using “extremist rhetoric,” according to CNN. “Rather than risking a worst-case scenario attack, US officials decided to go in and arrest the men,” CNN reported.
Concerns about the ISIS-K threat grew earlier this year after intelligence agencies received new information that more than 400 Central Asian migrants had entered the US through a “human trafficking network” possibly linked to ISIS, according to NBC News. About 150 of these “suspects” have been arrested because of “extraordinary caution,” one official told me, but about 50 remain unaccounted for, the network reported.
The influx of migrants from Central Asia is a new headache for the Department of Homeland Security. Officials estimate that about 40 people enter the US from the region every day, and say there are “tens of thousands” of illegal immigrants in the US from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries. Most are economic migrants who arrive through smuggling networks that use social media, cheap travel and layovers in Europe to easily cross into the US.
A major flaw in the system is that Homeland Security has no tools to screen potentially dangerous migrants seeking asylum at border ports of entry. Querying classified databases and using biometric data requires more manpower and resources. Despite the lessons of 9/11, intelligence agencies remain wary of sharing highly sensitive information without secure facilities, which most border crossings lack.
Department of Homeland Security Inspector General Joseph V. Khufari released a scathing report on the lack of screening tools on June 7. “The Department of Homeland Security's technology, procedures, and coordination were not fully effective in screening and vetting aliens applying for admission to the United States,” he wrote.
“Unless DHS addresses these challenges, it will continue to risk admitting dangerous individuals or allowing asylum seekers to remain in the United States who may pose a significant threat to public safety and national security,” Caffari continued. DHS did not dispute Caffari's findings or recommendations for improvement.
The fundamental problem is that border security has become a political issue, not a law enforcement or national security issue. A divided Congress won't approve the spending Homeland Security needs to hire more staff and update its systems. And while a 2004 law requires intelligence agencies to share counterterrorism information, the inspector general's report said DHS “did not have access to all the federal data necessary to fully vet and identify foreign nationals seeking entry into the United States.” DHS doesn't have the technology to collect biometric data at land crossings, and the Defense Department has no intention of sharing all biometric data, the report found.
The backlog of asylum claims is growing: A Department of Homeland Security report estimates that of the 762,432 asylum claims filed between 2017 and 2023, 54% will not be resolved within 180 days, and some will take up to five years to be adjudicated. Of the backlogged asylum claims, 620 involve “potential national security concerns,” according to the report.
The Biden administration tried to pass a bipartisan border security bill this year, but was blocked by former President Donald Trump, who apparently preferred to blame Democrats rather than try to solve the border mess. President Biden finally issued an executive order this month imposing tougher restrictions. But Biden acted quietly, ignoring the protests of progressive interest groups, without forcing a call for action.
A well-policed ​​border is essential to public safety, and we hope that in the coming months Biden doesn’t realize just how dangerous the lack of a bipartisan border policy is.
