Like Dow Jones stock prices, fantasy football draft positions and the perceived value of players can change rapidly. By staying up to date on the latest trends with a dedicated host or provider, smart fantasy football managers can take advantage of falling average draft position (ADP) and avoid overvalued players. With rookie training camp over and the 2024 Hall of Fame Game just over a month away, finding out which players are on the rise and which are falling down the draft board is critical to making informed decisions.
Below are some examples of fantasy football players that are currently trending, both for better and for worse.
The rise and fall of fantasy football players
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels (WAS): On the rise
Let's all get on board with this craze. In early rankings and ADPs, Daniels was criminally undervalued, with some sites placing him as a low-end QB2. Lately, he's started to move up into low-end QB1 territory, above Caleb Williams and Aaron Rodgers, and approaching the tier shared by Brock Purdy and Jordan Love. There's no denying that his thin frame is a concern. He won't be able to absorb the same level of contact on scrambling plays as he did at LSU. He's surrounded by proven veterans, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has experience dealing with mobile quarterbacks. His potential is immense, and managers are finally starting to prioritize potential over risk in the draft room.
Justin Herbert (LAC): Downward trend
Herbert is currently QB16 according to FantasyPros ECR after a disastrous 2023 season. Due to a myriad of injuries and poor offensive line play, Herbert finished the season with the lowest passing numbers of his career, throwing for just 20 touchdowns and 3,134 yards, finishing as QB2. During the offseason, Herbert's overall outlook only got worse with the departures of his three top targets (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett) and Los Angeles' decision to recruit Jim Harbaugh out of the University of Michigan. His and coordinator Greg Roman's preferred offensive scheme relies heavily on the running game, which will likely result in fewer opportunities for Herbert and limited room for overall upside.
Running back
Zamir White (LV): On the rise
After Josh Jacobs left for Green Bay in free agency, everyone expected Las Vegas to fill the running back position during the draft. Apparently, head coach Antonio Pierce didn't get that memo. White showed his talent when given the opportunity late last year, including a league-high 84 rushes for over 450 yards from scrimmage since Week 15. With little competition for touches behind him, White enters this year as a volume-dependent RB2 option and RB22 overall. If he stays healthy and the team is competitive, the Raiders will give him plenty of opportunity to shine.
James Conner (ARI): Downward trend
Since entering the league with Pittsburgh in 2017, Conner has proven to be a reliably unreliable player. On the rare occasions when he is fully healthy, Conner still has top-10 overall talent at his position given his receiving and blocking abilities. Unfortunately, his aggressive running style invites contact he can't handle, and as a result, Conner has started 13 games or fewer in six of the past seven seasons. As insurance, Arizona drafted my highest-rated rookie running back, Trey Benson, out of Florida State, and Benson will likely be up for a spot out of training camp. Conner is expected to be the man of the committee, but it's only a matter of time before that changes.
Wide Receiver
Rashid Shahid (NO): On the rise
Shahid had a breakout sophomore season in New Orleans, setting career highs in receptions (46), receiving yards (719) and touchdowns (5). Could this be a sign of things to come in 2024? A former disgruntled UDFA, Shahid had the sixth-highest aDOT (14.4) at his position and averaged 15.6 yards per breakaway with his breakaway speed. With Michael Thomas out of the Saints, Shahid will see a surge in snaps opposite Chris Olave. Fantasy managers will be hoping he's not on such a high-or-low edge in 2024 after missing multiple games last year.
Keenan Allen (CHI): Downtrend
Allen's inclusion in the downward trending list has nothing to do with his talent level, age, or health, but simply his new situation. After 11 great seasons with the Los Angeles Chargers and clearly a mainstay, the team decided to trade him to Chicago for 50 Cent. He now has to overcome some pitfalls, including a rookie quarterback under center and tough competition for targets against DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, and Rome Odunze, plus learn a new offense. Allen will undoubtedly thrive when the pass is thrown to him, but he needs to be realistic about the volume of expectations.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts (ATL): On the rise
Few players in recent memory have been like Lucy from “Peanuts,” who smashes the ball away as Charlie Brown prepares to kick it. Under former head coach Arthur Smith, horrible mismanagement meant Pitts was only targeted 90 times last year despite playing all 17 games. And most of those targets were low-quality, replacement-level players. Raheem Morris and Kirk Cousins ​​will help. It's arguable that no player benefited more from the offseason than Pitts. He's expected to thrive in his contract year with Atlanta. At 6'6 and 250 pounds, he's incredibly athletic and expected to thrive under the new offensive scheme, making him a favorite among pundits as a breakout player.
David Njoku (CLE): Downward trend
Last year, Njoku finished as the TE5 overall thanks to an astounding final grade of 81/882/6 in half-point PPR leagues. While his totals are encouraging, the majority of his production came when Joe Flacco replaced Deshaun Watson in Cleveland, with Watson expected to play center in Week 1 against the Browns. Borrowing statistics from my colleague Pat Fitzmaurice, Njoku averaged 6.2 receptions, 80.5 yards and four touchdowns per game under Flacco, but just 4.6 receptions, 44.7 yards and two touchdowns under Watson. Watson would need to dramatically improve his play for Njoku to be a top-10 option at the position again.
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