Wang Yiwei, a Europe expert at Renmin University of China, said the EU has already adopted a risk-avoidance strategy to reduce economic reliance on China and boost its own competitiveness, but the rise of right-wing forces is likely to toughen its stance by pushing for punitive measures such as the recently introduced higher tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars.
He said the most immediate impact would be on environmental cooperation, as right-wing politicians are highly sceptical of EU environmental policy.
“The original purpose [for EV imports] “Initially the aim was to reduce emissions. But now people say the Green New Deal is wrong and will have a negative impact on industry and jobs. This will create even bigger problems for China,” Wang said.
The EU has set ambitious climate targets to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, sparking a surge in imports of electric vehicles from China. Of the 1.8 million electric cars China has sold globally, more than a quarter were exported to Europe.
Christina van Bergen, a senior European Commission expert, said the EU still wanted to cooperate with China on green energy and that the right's influence in this area should not be exaggerated.
But she said it could impose “somewhat tougher scrutiny of Chinese investment in Europe and more rigorous evaluation of trade agreements to protect domestic industries.”
“The EU may adopt a more cautious approach to its reliance on China for critical raw materials, technology and consumer goods, but in practice this is already happening,” she said.
“Right-wing parties' views on China vary, but they often prioritise national interests. This could lead to a more transactional approach in EU-China relations, where cooperation is pursued selectively based on clear benefits for the EU.”
The French opposition Rally National won a landslide victory over President Macron's ruling party, and the right-wing Identity and Democracy (ID) party also made great strides in the parliamentary elections.
Philippe Le Corre, a senior research fellow at the Asia Society specializing in China-EU relations, said Marine Le Pen's National Rally has a France First policy and she may continue to push for a “reduced trade dependence” on China.
Le Pen proposed a halt to wind power development, which is expected to deal a further blow to China, which is already facing an investigation into anti-subsidy measures for wind turbines sold to Europe. China exported more than 1 billion euros worth of wind turbines to Europe last year.
Wang said it remains to be seen how the EU's China policy will play out depending on who holds top posts, including European Council president and foreign policy chief. Aside from the trade dispute, relations between China and the EU have been strained over allegations of espionage, human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and dual-use supplies to support Russia's war against Ukraine.
Wang said that past criticism that “China failed to win the Ukraine war because it was supporting Russia” may no longer be valid in the future, as far-right politicians who appear to be “pro-Russia” and opposed to continued financial aid to Ukraine may put pressure on the EU's Ukraine policy.
Right-wing parties that won elections, such as Le Pen's National Rally and Austria's Freedom Party, were suspected of having close ties to Russia, having received funding from the Kremlin and stepped up its propaganda activities during the Ukraine war.
The Alternative for Germany, which beat Scholz's Social Democrats to become the second largest party in the election, was also accused of spying for Russia and China, but was expelled from the ID party before the election because of the scandal.
Frans Paul van der Putten, a China expert at the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank, said the EU's China policy was likely to continue after the election, including continuing pressure on Beijing over trade with Russia, and that the war in Ukraine and rising tensions between the U.S. and China were “having a major impact on Europe's perception of China as a potential or actual threat.”
The EU is increasingly caught in the crossfire between the US and China, with US pressure mounting on Beijing to impose tech curbs, while China has called on the EU to maintain its “strategic autonomy” and appears to be stepping up efforts to improve ties with the EU.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited France last month to meet with Macron and von der Leyen – his first visit to France since the pandemic began – and Scholz visited China in April.
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Chinese electric cars face additional import tariffs of up to 38% from the EU
Chinese electric cars face additional import tariffs of up to 38% from the EU
Ding Chun, director of the Centre for European Studies at Fudan University, said the rise of the right wing would not lead to major changes in Brussels, but warned the EU may adjust its policy priorities from the energy transition to economic and technological independence.
“Amid the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, voices about the EU's strategic autonomy have lessened, but they have not disappeared completely. The future direction will depend on a variety of variables, including the policies of the new EU administration and the US elections.”
Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly threatened to cut off financial aid to Ukraine and impose tariffs on all European goods if re-elected.
Van Bergen said right-wing parties in the EU are likely to forge closer ties with the EU, with “nationalist and populist” policies such as trade protectionism, and that a Trump presidency could have a significant impact on the EU's relationship with China.
He said that if Trump steps up protectionist measures, Europe “may find economic cooperation with China more attractive, especially in terms of market access and investment opportunities.” But he said a “complete turn to China is unlikely” because European countries are unlikely to distance themselves from the U.S. on security issues.
“Despite tensions with the US, Europe's broader strategic concerns may not necessarily align it with China…Europeans may instead pursue a balanced approach while maintaining strong ties with both major powers.”
