Get ready for a Democratic uprising.
Even the most creative debaters in President Biden's campaign will have a hard time crafting a victory narrative from his abysmal performance in Thursday night's debate with predecessor Donald Trump.
That means long-standing Democratic anxieties about Biden's decision to run for a second term will come to the forefront, along with the unrealistic scenario that he might be forced to step down. There will surely be talk of holding a Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August to choose a new candidate.
But the chaos it would cause would be devastating: Biden and Trump are the candidates on whom each party has cast its fates, and polls consistently show the choice to be the most unpleasant one Americans have faced in modern history.
Biden's age has long been a top concern for voters: At 81, he is the oldest serving president in history and will be 86 at the end of his second term.
Follow this authorKaren Tumulty's opinion
The president's performance on Thursday likely did little to ease their fears. He was lost in the debate from the start. His voice was weak, raspy and shocking. He sometimes stumbled over his words and lost his train of thought. It was a stark contrast to the energetic Biden who delivered a powerful State of the Union address in March.
At 78, Trump is just three years younger than Biden, but he held the lead throughout the campaign.
Biden's lowest moment — perhaps the one he'll remember most and play out over the next few days — came early in the debate, at the end of a rambling answer in which Biden concluded, “We finally beat Medicare.”
Predictably, Trump fired back: “Yeah, he's right. He defeated Medicare. He defeated it big time.”
And, as always, Trump continued to falsely claim that “millions” of illegal immigrants are “destroying Social Security” and undermining Medicare. (In fact, the opposite is true: illegal immigrants actually strengthen both programs; federal law bars them from receiving Medicare and Social Security benefits, even though many illegal immigrants are enrolled in both programs.)
Fact checkers will no doubt be furious about Trump's string of lies, and he has also tended to falter when confronted with uncomfortable topics, such as when he tried to talk about the situation at the border and the economy to dodge questions about the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol by his supporters.
But overall, Trump seemed better prepared and more disciplined than most expected. There was some of the bombast and exhibitionism we're used to seeing at his rallies, but he was not the crazed thug that turned up at his first debate with Biden four years ago. It undoubtedly helped that Trump was constrained by a rule insisted by Biden's team that each candidate's microphone be turned off when it was not his turn to speak.
This showdown marked the first time in history that Americans had seen a former president and a current president face off side-by-side on the debate stage. At this point, their strengths and weaknesses are well known. There is little mystery as to where they stand on the major policy issues of the day. All of this increased the degree to which this debate was about impressions and performances.
In response to the most expected question – about his “ability to do the world's toughest job in his 80s” from CNN's Dana Bash – Biden gave a rambling, incoherent speech, first talking about how he was the youngest politician to hold that position for most of his career, and then launching into a discussion about computer chips.
Biden is trying to make this election a referendum on his opponent, which is always difficult for an incumbent president, but especially so for Biden, whose latest Gallup poll puts him at a dismal 38% approval rating, roughly the same as he's been in recent months and about 10 points below the threshold that every incumbent re-elected president in the modern era has cleared by Election Day.
The same survey found that Republicans were nearly twice as likely as Democrats to say they were satisfied with their candidate, but fewer than half had a favorable view of either candidate.
Biden took a big gamble by calling the earliest debate in the history of a general election campaign, hoping to shake up the balance of power in a very close race. He was right, but not in the way he hoped.
The good news for Biden is that there are still five months and one more debate to go until November, and there will likely be ups and downs for both candidates, but for Biden, this will be a lasting blow.
