Editor's note: CNN political analyst Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public policy at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of 25 books, including the upcoming “Our Nation at Risk: Election Integrity as a National Security Issue.” Follow him on Twitter. Julian ZelizerThe opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. See more opinions on CNN.
CNN —
President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance on Thursday night has Democrats in a state of panic, scrambling to figure out what happens next. Game-changing moments are rare in today's polarized politics, but what happened in Atlanta on June 27 could actually change the course of the 2024 election.
At the very least, the president's inability to express himself and his meek demeanor have prompted Democrats to seriously debate whether he can defeat former President Donald Trump, who many see as a fundamental threat to our democracy.
But with just over a month until the national convention, talk of replacing him on the shortlist is reaching fever pitch. Democrats are already discussing who could replace him this late in the race to help the party retain control of the White House in November, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Lower-ranking Democrats are also searching for a top candidate who wouldn't jeopardize their chances of victory.
But it will not be any of those alternative candidates, or even Biden himself, who decides what happens next. Biden will not have a serious opportunity to address these concerns until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in late August.
The most important person right now is Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris, who has been constantly scrutinized and criticized, is the only person who can save Biden's candidacy at this point. In the coming weeks, she needs to show she can take the lead in public by speaking out on issues like reproductive rights and presenting the strongest prosecutorial case in support of the president. She needs to show the presidential dignity that voters expect from him and trust to address the issues of the day. The more she does this, the more confidence she can build in Biden's next term.
If Harris can win the trust of enough persuadable voters in battleground states to be convinced that she can take over the presidency if necessary and serve as Biden's co-ruler in the interim, that would do more to stabilize the party than anything else. Just as former Vice President Dick Cheney reassured the young and unproven George W. Bush that he could handle the presidency in 2000, Harris could help ease voter concerns about Biden's age.
Moreover, even if Biden were to step down, Harris would still likely be the nominee, and it would be extremely risky for the Democratic Party to somehow push aside the first Black and Asian American woman vice president and field an entirely new candidate.
Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter
In the short term, Harris needs to convincingly demonstrate that she has the strength and ability to build on Biden's first term's accomplishments at home and abroad and lead a successful administration, making it easier for Democrats and voters to bet on the incumbent. Biden's weaknesses exposed last night as both a candidate and a president may be less of a concern if Harris is perceived as a strong and capable campaigner and leader.
Despite the preoccupations surrounding her term as vice president, this goal is not out of reach for her, and she would be comfortable going toe-to-toe with Trump on the debate stage, as she showed in the 2020 primary debates and in the Senate.
Harris is key to Biden's survival, and her strengths and weaknesses on the campaign trail in the coming weeks could define the future of the 46th president.
