There is little doubt that the results of the mayoral and local elections point to a defeat for the Conservatives in the general election.
Their position is in jeopardy thanks to the prevalence of anti-conservative voting, which is creating a vicious pincer movement against them. In 2019, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's demands and his pledge to “get Brexit done” gave the party its first decisive parliamentary majority in decades. That advantage is crumbling as “red wall” voters turn their backs on the Tories.
But it is the so-called blue wall bleed in the southeast that signals disaster. Disasters were felt across the region from Crawley to Basildon on Thursday. After a series of Conservative defeats, the Liberal Democrats gained control of Tunbridge Wells. Labor has won a majority in Rushmoor Council in Hampshire for the first time. Voters appear willing to support the party most likely to damage the Conservative Party.
A similar pattern emerged in London. Labor won for the first time in relatively wealthy constituencies in the Midwest. Sadiq Khan unexpectedly made huge gains in London's suburban commuter belt, winning a landslide victory in the mayoral race. Conservative members of the suburbs are increasingly protesting. The scope for progress for the Liberal Democrats and Labor is now significant. Middle-class voters across the South are rejecting the Conservative Party in droves. Many people never supported leaving the European Union. The Truss Budget left deep scars, including higher mortgage rates that hit voters in London and the South East.
Many are disgusted by the Conservative Party's xenophobic worldview and increasingly harsh stance on immigration. They are not convinced by the Conservative London mayoral candidate's view that “green policies are wreaking havoc in our cities”. It is therefore clear that the majority want the Sunak government to be removed. Predictions that the next election will result in a dysfunctional parliament are off the mark. The results confirm what the polls tell us: Labor is marching inexorably towards power.
What is less clear is that voters are prepared to reward the party with a 1997-style landslide majority. We know Labor has a mountain to climb. In 2019, they suffered their worst defeat since 1935.
Furthermore, many voters feel that Labour's alternative prospectus is too vague. Another problem is fragmentation. As more parties compete, especially the Greens (which performed well), the outcome becomes less predictable. Voters dissatisfied with the Labor leadership's stance on the Gaza war and its environmental sensitivity are willing to punish the party. That fact may still deny Sir Keir Starmer the resounding victory he craves.
Professor Patrick Diamond is Director of the Mile End Research Institute at Queen Mary University of London.
