Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat revealed on Sunday that Egypt is issuing a warning to suspend its peace treaty with Israel in the event of Israeli troops being deployed to the densely populated Gaza border town of Rafah.
The Egyptian authorities further stated that any conflict in Rafah could lead to the closure of the main aid supply route to the besieged territory.
This threat to suspend the Camp David Accords, which have been a pillar of regional stability for nearly fifty years, arose following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion that sending troops into Rafah was necessary to achieve victory in the ongoing four-month war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Over half of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have sought refuge in Rafah from conflicts in other regions, residing in sprawling tent camps and U.N.-managed shelters near the border. Egypt is concerned about the potential massive influx of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees into its territory, many of whom might never be able to return to their homes.
The impasse between Israel and Egypt, both close allies of the United States, coincides with warnings from aid organizations about the potential exacerbation of the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza if an offensive were to occur in Rafah.
Approximately 80% of Gaza’s population has been displaced from their homes, with a quarter of the population facing the threat of starvation, according to the United Nations. Hamas’ Al-Aqsa television station quoted an unnamed Hamas official expressing concern that any incursion into Rafah would disrupt ongoing mediation efforts facilitated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar aimed at securing a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages.
WHERE WOULD CIVILIANS GO
Netanyahu, in an interview with ABC News “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” suggested civilians in Rafah could flee north, saying there are “plenty of areas” that have been cleared by the army. He said Israel is developing a “detailed plan” to relocate them.
But Israel’s offensive has caused widespread destruction, particularly in northern Gaza, and heavy fighting is still taking place in central Gaza and the southern city of Khan Younis. In Gaza City on Sunday, the remaining residents covered decomposing bodies in the streets or carried bodies to graves. Some streets were piled high with sand from bombings. Smoke billowed from destroyed buildings.
A ground operation in Rafah could cut off one of the only avenues for delivering Gaza’s badly needed food and medical supplies.
All three officials confirmed Egypt’s threats, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters on the sensitive negotiations. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other countries have also warned of severe repercussions if Israel goes into Rafah.
“An Israeli offensive on Rafah would lead to an unspeakable humanitarian catastrophe and grave tensions with Egypt,” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wrote on X.
The White House, which has rushed arms to Israel and shielded it from international calls for a cease-fire, has also warned against a Rafah ground operation under current circumstances, saying it would be a “disaster” for civilians.
Israel and Egypt fought five wars before signing the Camp David Accords, a landmark peace treaty brokered by then-U.S. President Jimmy Carter in the late 1970s. The treaty includes several provisions governing the deployment of forces on both sides of the border.
Egypt has heavily fortified its border with Gaza, carving out a 5-kilometer (3-mile) buffer zone and erecting concrete walls above and below ground. It has denied Israeli allegations that Hamas operates smuggling tunnels beneath the border, saying Egyptian forces have full control on their side.
Egyptian officials fear that if the border is breached, the military would be unable to stop a tide of people fleeing into the Sinai Peninsula.
The United Nations says Rafah, normally home to less than 300,000 people, now hosts 1.4 million more who fled fighting elsewhere and is “severely overcrowded.”
Netanayahu said Hamas still has four battalions there. “Those who say that under no circumstances should we enter Rafah are basically saying lose the war, keep Hamas there,” he told ABC News.
PALESTINIAN TOLL MOUNTS
Israel has ordered much of Gaza’s population to flee south with evacuation orders covering two-thirds of the territory, even as it regularly carries out airstrikes in all areas, including Rafah. Airstrikes on the town in recent days have killed dozens of Palestinians, including women and children.
Gaza’s Health Ministry said Sunday that the bodies of 112 people killed across the territory had been brought to hospitals in the past 24 hours, as well as 173 wounded people. The fatalities brought the death toll in the strip to 28,176 since the start of the war. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and fighters but says most of those killed were women and children.
The war began with Hamas’ attack into southern Israel on Oct. 7, when Palestinian militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250. Over 100 hostages were released in November during a weeklong cease-fire in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Some of the remaining hostages have died.
Hamas has said it won’t release any more unless Israel ends its offensive and withdraws from Gaza. It has also demanded the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including senior militants serving life sentences.
Netanyahu has ruled out both demands, saying Israel will fight on until “total victory” and the return of all the hostages.
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